New Pew Poll
by Ryan Sager
Fri, 3 Aug 2007 at 10:22 AM
updated Fri, 3 Aug 2007 at 10:26 AM
There's a new Pew poll out:
(change from last Pew poll in April in parentheses)
Republicans
Giuliani: 27% (-5)
Thompson: 18% (+8)
McCain: 16% (-7)
Romney: 10% (+2)
Democrats
Clinton: 40% (+6)
Obama: 21% (-3)
Edwards: 11% (-7)
Taking a look at the Republican side, a few interesting things emerge in the Pew analysis:
* The Pew report notes this about the dip in Rudy Giuliani's support: "The small overall drop in support for Rudy Giuliani reflects a sizeable shift in opinion among Republican-leaning independents, who are about half as likely to back him today (18%) as they were in April (34%). By comparison, Giuliani's support among voters who identify as Republicans has remained unchanged (31% in April, 30% today)." Why is this? Since April, one would think hard-core Republicans might have softened on Mr. Giuliani, over abortion perhaps. But it's the independents whose support has softened. I admit I don't have a good explanation. (Readers? Your thoughts?)
* Speaking of abortion: "The survey also finds that Giuliani's generally pro-life [sic] position on abortion continues to be unknown to most Republicans. Barely four-in-ten (41%) Republican voters, including independents who lean Republican, can identify Giuliani as the GOP candidate who supports a woman's right to choose when it comes to abortion, while the rest either incorrectly named another GOP candidate (12%) or say they do not know (47%). This is not substantially different from the share of Democratic voters who are aware of Giuliani's position (39%)."
* However, Pew finds that Republican voters don't change their mind when they do find out Mr. Giuliani is pro-choice: "Awareness of Giuliani's position is higher among Republican voters who have given a lot of thought to the candidates (58% gave the correct answer). There also is an ideological divide: Nearly half (47%) of conservative voters can identify Giuliani as the pro-choice candidate compared with 30% of moderate and liberal Republicans. But still, there is no evidence that this issue is hurting Giuliani among conservatives. Conservative Republicans who know Giuliani's position are about as likely to support him as those who are unaware of his position." I know a lot of observers can't believe this, but the evidence keeps piling up: Abortion will not drive the 2008 Republican primary; terrorism and spending will.
* Also, while a majority (53%) of Republican and Republican-leaning voters want a new direction in Iraq, the issue isn't driving votes: "Giuliani continues to lead Republican voters who favor change in Iraq (25%) and among those who support continuing present polices (28%)."
* Lastly, Fred Thompson is the leading candidate among Republican-leaning Independents: "Fred Thompson has gained support across the board. His overall standing is up eight-points, from 10% in April to 18% today, and his support has grown at about the same rate among both Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Combined with the steep drop in support for Giuliani and McCain among these voters, Fred Thompson has risen to the top of the field among Republican 'leaners.'" This fascinates me, as Mr. Thompson is supposed to be the "conservative alternative" or the "real conservative." What's he doing leading with this group? We'll see how that number holds up.
Related Topics: Dem Primary, GOP Primary
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