Straw Poll Fever
by Ryan Sager
Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 11:03 AM
updated Wed, 8 Aug 2007 at 11:05 AM
The Iowa straw poll — set for this Saturday — is looking to be a bit less lustrous an affair than usual this year. With Mitt Romney as the lone representative of the top tier, what constitutes victory, and for whom is it a make-or-break event?
Well, clearly Mitt Romney has to win it. There would seem to be no doubt that he will — but by how much? Jonathan Martin at Politico throws out George W. Bush's 10-point margin of victory over Steve Forbes in 1999 as a benchmark. Of course, Steve Forbes actually participated in the straw poll (Rudy Giuliani's strategy of delegitimizing the straw poll looks smarter every day, doesn't it). I'd say 10 is pegging the margin he would need to beat expectations rather low. He leads by more than 10 points in plenty of polls. In an event that's supposed to be all abotu organization and participation, he should be able to beat his margin in the polls significantly, by say 15%-20%.
Of course, Mr. Romney's total could be pulled down if there's a serious showing by any number of the second-tier candidates...
Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post looks at Mike Huckabee's chances of coming in second. Given that even the most favorable polls have Mr. Huckabee tied for fourth with John McCain (ARG has him at 1%, tied with Sam Brownback and Ron Paul), I don't see it as likely. Mr. Cillizza also notes that even in the Washington Post poll where Mr. Huckabee did well, no one seems to think he has the experience to be president or a chance at winning.
This leaves the rest of the field... Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, Ron Paul, and Duncan Hunter. Can any of these guys stay in without a major showing? And what would constitute major? "Major" would probably mean coming in above Giuliani, Thompson, or McCain. But that simply doesn't seem likely.
The big question is how does the Giuliani-Thompson-McCain axis do, having skipped the event. Do they all make a good showing, despite not participating? Or do they get hammered, inflating the second-tier vote totals?
We'll find out on Saturday...
Related Topics: GOP Primary
Latest Politics Homepage
|
Print
Send
RSS
