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Diageo/Hotline Poll

by Ryan Sager
Sun, 2 Sep 2007 at 1:23 PM
updated Sun, 2 Sep 2007 at 1:24 PM

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Here are the results of the Diageo/Hotline poll (PDF) that the Fred Thompson campaign is touting this weekend (the change from the last poll in July in parentheses):

If I were the Thompson campaign, I'm not sure I'd be hyping this poll. To quote the press release: "With just over four months to go before the presidential primary season begins, the Diageo/Hotline poll of 604 registered Republican voters, conducted August 22-26, reveals that former New York City mayor, Rudy Giuliani, garners significant vote support across the full range of Republican voters. Giuliani currently has a 10 point lead in the national primary ballot over former Senator Fred Thompson (27% to 17%). He leads his rivals not only among Evangelicals (Giuliani, 26%; Thompson, 16%), but also among conservatives, who favor Giuliani over Thompson 27% to 20%. Giuliani's broad base of support even includes those who believe that 'abortion should not be permitted at all': among this group Giuliani leads Thompson, his nearest competitor, 26% to 20% in the primary ballot."

There is some hope for Mr. Thompson, though, in the poll:

Despite the Giuliani's broad base of support, this month's poll reveals some indicators where he might be vulnerable, most notably among the 35% of Republican voters who identify themselves as "very conservative." Among this group of voters, Giuliani and Thompson are in a statistical dead heat (Thompson, 23%; Giuliani, 21%). Moreover, very conservative voters see Thompson as the candidate who most represents what the Republican Party currently stands for by a 7 point margin (Thompson, 19%; Giuliani, 12%), as well as what the GOP should stand for by a 10 point margin (Thompson, 27%; Giuliani, 17%).

Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis

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