Thompson's Party Crashing
by Ryan Sager
Sun, 2 Sep 2007 at 12:12 PM
updated Sun, 2 Sep 2007 at 12:16 PM
Yes, it's Labor Day Weekend. But before I head out for some utterly non-politics-related, county-fair action, a few notes on the weekend's political news. Senator Craig is gone, so I'll just leave that be. But there are a few items of note on the Fred Thompson front...
1) Mr. Thompson may not be at Wednesday night's GOP debate in New Hampshire — choosing instead to do Leno that night and then announce by webcast on Thursday — but he has apparently bought an ad on Fox News that will air at the beginning of the debate. I haven't heard anything by way of response from the other campaigns, but they've got to be annoyed.
2) Mr. Thompson's campaign has also issued its first campaign "strategy memo" — meant, of course for public and media consumption — arguing that entering the race late is no big deal. After all, the memo argues, people make their decisions in the last few days of a campaign (or, at least they tell pollsters they do). The full Thompson memo is after the jump.
(Actually, two notes before the memo... a. The McLaughlin memo cites 38% of GOP voters saying they're "not satisfied" with the current crop of candidates. How many of these folks are including Fred Thompson in this crop? I'd guess a lot, since the same poll offers Mr. Thompson as one of the choices. b. The McLaughlin memo uses 1996 and 2000 as examples of elections where voters decided at the last minute. But didn't the prohibitive frontrunners win both races, as expected? Especially in 2000? Doesn't seem like a great couple of examples...)
The memo:
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: John McLaughlin, Pollster
RE: A Primary Primer
DATE: Sept. 1, 2007
It appears Fred Thompson's announcement of next week's campaign kick-off has a few of the other campaigns a bit on the defensive, scrambling to release "strategy" memos and whispering to the media actually trying to suggest that it is too late to enter this race. In a Republican primary, it is never too late for a true leader with authentic conservative credentials.
Here are the facts:
* With months left to go before voting, this election is VERY fluid.
* Virtually every GOP primary or caucus exit poll taken in the last 20 years has shown that huge percentages of voters make up their minds in the final week before voting. It is foolhardy for any campaign to suggest that voter positions are already solidified at this stage of the cycle.
Consider:
GOP voters not satisfied with current crop:
According to several recent public surveys taken prior to Fred Thompson's announcement that he plans to be a candidate for president, huge percentages of GOP voters indicated they were not satisfied with the current GOP crop. In the Diageo/Hotline poll released just days ago, barely half (54%) of all GOP voters were satisfied with the current crop of GOP candidates with fully 38% not satisfied. This dissatisfaction creates fluidity which creates opportunity for an authentic conservative like Fred Thompson.
Exit polling: GOP voters make up their minds late:
Based on our review of exit polling data from years like 1996 and 2000 where there was an open GOP seat, significant percentages of voters decided for whom they would vote in the final week leading up to Election Day.
Iowa - 1996
Decided Who To Vote For In...
Last 3 Days 23%
Last Week 19% (42% cumulative)
1996 CNN/VNS Exit Poll Data
New Hampshire - 1996
Decided Who To Vote For In...
Election Day 23%
Last 3 Days 20% (43% cumulative)
Last Week 22% (65% cumulative)
1996 CNN/VNS Exit Poll Data
New Hampshire - 2000
Decided who to vote for in...
Election Day 14%
Last 3 Days 12% (26% cumulative)
Last Week 24% (50% cumulative)
2000 CNN Exit Poll Data
South Carolina - 1996
Decided Who To Vote For In...
Today 17%
Last 3 Days 14% (31% cumulative)
Last Week 24% (55% cumulative)
1996 CNN/VNS Exit Poll Data
South Carolina - 2000
When Did You Decide To Vote?
Today 9%
Last 3 Days 10% (19% cumulative)
Last Week 19% (38% cumulative)
2000 CNN Exit Poll Data
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Related Topics: GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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