That Ridiculous Giuliani Map
by Ryan Sager
Wed, 3 Oct 2007 at 10:22 AM
updated Wed, 3 Oct 2007 at 10:23 AM
You may have seen that ridiculous Giuliani campaign map yesterday that attempted to show how a Giuliani-Clinton race would put the former mayor in the catbird seat — that is, counting only Vermont and Massachusetts as definite Clinton wins, while allocating Florida, Virginia, and other tight states to the definite Giuliani column (meanwhile, California and New York are listed as swing states).
The latest New York numbers from Quinnipiac, which jibe with the older numbers from Quinnipiac, go a long way toward showing just how ridiculous the idea of New York as a swing state really is.
In short, in a state where both candidates are at essentially 100% name ID, Mrs. Clinton comes in with an 11%-12% lead. Hillary wins among Democrats (obviously), women, Independents. Rudy wins among men and Republicans. But does anyone in the Giuliani camp really believe that anything could change the game in New York in a way that would put the Empire State seriously in play? That Mrs. Clinton would even have to spend a dime?
New Jersey would be legitimately in play, and would require the Democrats to spend some money.
Pennsylvania, some of New England — Mr. Giuliani would also do a lot for the GOP in those states.
California — well, that would be even less plausible than New York, if you believe the early polls.
Giuliani brings a lot in terms of electablity. But pipe dream scenarios like this don't add to his campaign's credibility.
Take a look at the fanciful map below the fold...
 Credit: Politico.com |
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Related Topics: General Election, GOP Primary, Poll Analysis
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