Obama and White Men: Where's the Gap?
by Josh Gerstein
Thu, 12 Jun 2008 at 1:50 PM
Just watched a discussion on MSNBC where Andrea Mitchell and Jay Carney of Time were talking about the nasty rumors about Senator Obama and his wife on the Internets. Like the old should-this-be-an-issue-to-discuss-in-the-press Nightline shows, the segment managed to air the rumors while condemning them as unfounded (and condemning others for airing them).
Ms. Mitchell went on to suggest that the rumors were contributing to a "resistance" that has Senator Obama 20% behind Senator McCain among white men in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. Mr. McCain is at 55%; Mr. Obama at 35%. But that gap is actually less than what one would expect based on recent history.
The exit polls in 2004 had Senator Kerry trailing President Bush by 25% among white men, 37% to 62%. The exit polls in 2000 had Vice President Gore trailing Mr. Bush by 24%, 36% to 60%. In 1996, President Clinton had 38% of the white male vote, with 49% going to Senator Dole and 11% to Ross Perot.
I suppose one could argue that Mr. Obama should be doing even better among white men given the image of the GOP brand at the moment. But, immediately after a contested primary, he's already doing better than either Mr. Kerry or Mr. Gore, so I don't see the evidence of major racial resistance to Mr. Obama.
Related Topics: General Election, Poll Analysis
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