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I'm Correcting Matt Damonby Josh Gerstein
Buzzing through the ranks of panicky Democrats in the last day or two was a video clip of a television interview in which movie star Matt Damon expresses deep skepticism about Senator McCain's choice of Governor Palin of Alaska to be his runningmate. The most memorable line is when Mr. Damon blasts the pick as reminding him of "a really bad Disney movie" involving a hockey mom who becomes president. The actor's statement seems informed by this article in Politico last week calculating the life expectancy of Senator McCain. However, the movie star flubbed the numbers. That article, and a direct consultation of actuarial tables by The New York Sun, show there's a one-third chance Mr. McCain doesn't make it to 2017, when a potential second term would end. His chances of surviving his first term are much better. Politico pegged Mr. McCain's risk of death before 2013 at 14% to 15%. That's about a one in seven chance. Or, to be more optimistic, a six in seven chance he'll make it. (These numbers somewhat understate the chance of Mrs. Palin's accession to office because they don't take account of Mr. McCain's cancer history or of the possibility he might leave office early due to non-fatal illness or for other reasons.) Of course, you won't be hearing the McCain campaign begging for a correction on this one. The mortality of their candidate, be it remote or somewhat less than remote, is something they have zero interest in discussing, particularly given his vice presidential pick. Because we can't resist, Latest Politics rates Mr. Damon's statement: "Not true." Or zero on the truthometer. Anyway, somebody page Brooks Jackson. If you've been in a cave, or in parts of Alaska off the information superhighway, the Matt Damon video is here: Related Topics: General Election |
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