City Faces More Anguish at the Pump

Every driver is experiencing pain at the gas pump, but the anguish is more severe in New York City, where prices are among the highest in the nation.

The latest figures from the American Automobile Association show that prices for city residents are running nearly 6% to 10% higher than the national average on grades of gasoline ranging from regular unleaded to diesel fuel.

Across the city, for example, prices now are:

o$4.38 a gallon for regular unleaded, versus $4.08 nationally.

o$4.69 for medium grade, compared to $4.34 nationally.

o$4.79 for premium, versus $4.49 nationally.

o$5.22 for diesel, compared to $4.76 nationally.

Compared to a year ago, city drivers are shelling out anywhere from an additional $1.12 to $2.01 a gallon, according to AAA.

Unfortunately, more factors are in place to suggest higher rather than lower gas prices ahead, AAA's chief spokesman for New York City, Robert Sinclair, tells me. If current trends continue, he notes, city prices are headed still higher, even though gas demand year-over-year is down a significant 2% to 3% the past few months because of the price hikes.

"We're in an unprecedented situation and it's probably 60 to 40 that prices are headed higher," he says.

Those oil price-boosting trends he's referring to are the declining dollar (oil is traded in dollars), the failure of the Federal Reserve to do nothing with interest rates (in other words, not to increase them), which further weakens the dollar, and the prospects of higher oil prices, spurred by sharply increasing Chinese demand. Each $1 a barrel in the price of oil — currently trading at around $142.50 a barrel — eventually adds up to about an extra 2.5 cents a gallon at the gas pump.

Given the possibility of some of these trends continuing, Mr. Sinclair says New York City fuel prices could rise to between $4.60 and $4.70 a gallon for regular, between $4.95 and $5 for medium grade, between $5 and $5.10 for premium, and between $5.40 and $5.50 for diesel.

With the price of gas already topping $5 a gallon in some areas of New York State, I asked the AAA spokesman whether the speculation that the city could soon be approaching $6 a gallon is legitimate.

Mr. Sinclair didn't rule it out, citing some potential catalysts. "Name it," he says. "If we get another hurricane like Katrina, a storm, some new Middle East turmoil, such as an attack on Iran, or problems with such major suppliers as Venezuela or Nigeria, we could see the kind of gas prices — $6 to $9 a gallon — that are now prevalent in Western Europe."

Meanwhile, in a related development, one veteran investment adviser, Martin Weiss, head of Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., says the rising gas prices could wreak havoc on the auto industry. In particular, he notes that dealer lots are overflowing with gas-guzzling trucks and sport utility vehicles, but they can't get their hands on enough fuel-efficient cars, thus limiting sales of the industry's most popular models.

Pointing to a deepening American recession, an expected plunge in vehicle sales to 15-year lows, and a decision by Standard & Poor's to put General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler on "credit watch negative," Mr. Weiss says: "Don't be surprised if one of the Big Three is soon forced to file for bankruptcy."

dandordan@aol.com