A Crack Technician's Indicators Yell Sell

Almost as certain as death and taxes of late are the day in, day out declarations from one market expert or another assuring investors that the worst of the stock market decline is passed and that a sustained, significant rally is just around the corner.

The market's recent vigor may indeed give some credence to such a rosy view, but one of the leading online technical voices in the financial markets, Mark Leibovit, brands such assertions as hogwash.

More importantly, the crack technician tells me investors should take note of the old Wall Street adage: "Sell in May and go away." That's because of his strong belief that what really lies around the corner is a resumption of the agonizing downtrend that took place earlier this year, and that he thinks could push stock prices appreciably lower over the next several months.

Described by Timer Digest Magazine as the no. 1 market timer over the past three, five, and 10 years for the period ending 2007, Mr. Leibovit says his roughly 20 indicators — virtually all screaming "sell!" — strongly suggest that the Dow should fall to at least 12,700 by mid-August, and if it breaks below that level, it could plummet to 11,700. The Dow closed yesterday up slightly, at 12,866.

Put simply, he says it's a time "to watch out, to wait several months before doing any serious buying." For the prudent investor, his advice is unequivocal: "I wouldn't do any buying now, period."

That's the unmistakably noisy signal that Mr. Leibovit says he's getting from his key indicators, which include market sentiment, volume trends, interest rate movements, market cycles, contrary opinion, and accumulation and distribution patterns.

A market technician since 1979, and currently head of an online technical service firm, VRTrader.com in Sedona, Ariz., Mr. Leibovit says his indicators are firing off a message that "We've entered a multiyear bear market that should run to 2010 and progressively worsen in the next several months."

It's not all grim tidings in 2008, however, because he does see the prospects of a choppy rally kicking off at the end of the summer and possibly lasting until election time.

Mr. Leibovit says his analysis shows certain investments are throwing off positive technical readings, including Visa, BlackRock Global Equity Income Trust, which offers a 12% dividend, and a Morgan Stanley exchange-traded Chinese fund that mirrors the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It trades under the symbol CAF.

He notes that the Chinese market — which earlier this year fell 45% from its recent high and then partially rebounded a couple of weeks ago with a fast 13.5% gain in just two days — "looks very good to me."

Our technician also favors the Brazilian market, which recently hit a new high. Mr. Leibovit considers it one of the world's strongest markets. The big enticement? "It's a natural resource country," he explains. His favorite Brazilian play is the IShares MSCI Brazil Exchange Traded Fund, which trades under the symbol EWZ. "I like Brazil, but I don't know that I would chase it here," he says.

In contrast, high up on his list as the most vulnerable investments are financials, commodities (particularly if the dollar continues to rally), real estate investment trusts (which mostly center on commercial real estate), and housing.

While many Wall Street pros think the worst is over both for the financial and real estate sectors, Mr. Leibovit doesn't believe it, telling me his models suggest otherwise. Accordingly, he would shun or sell short (a bet on falling prices) several ETFs in these areas. Namely, the ones that trade under the symbols XLF (which focuses on financials), ICF and IYR (both of which are REIT ETFs), and XHB (residential).

Mr. Leibovit also takes a bearish view of bonds, arguing that rising inflation will force the Federal Reserve to push interest rates higher.

That is also the growing view among Wall Street economists, who basically see the Fed turning more hawkish by focusing more on rising prices than anemic economic growth.

One final thought from our technician: If the dollar rally should end, commodities are the place to be. In the event of such an occurrence, he sees the possibility of oil ballooning to $200 a barrel, gold climbing to $1,100 or $1,200 an ounce, and silver rising about $10 an ounce to the $26 level.

dandordan@aol.com