Foreign Buyers May Help Art Market Retain Measure of Euphoria

If the stock market tumbles and the economy softens, many would expect the art market to follow suit. The presence of foreign buyers, though, could prevent much more than a slowdown from the historic highs the art market has reached in recent years.

The auction house Sotheby's this spring opened an office in Moscow and Christie's recently said it planned to open in that city to service the increasing number of Russians purchasing art, and Chinese businessmen have also entered the scene. In May, Christie's held the second-most-lucrative art auction ever, earning a total of $385 million. According to the auction house, 18% of the buyers were from Asia and 19% were from Europe.

"This is a global business — you are dealing with China, India, and Russia," James Goodman of James Goodman Gallery Inc., located in the Fuller Building in Midtown, said.

The rise of foreign buyers, whose currencies have far more purchasing power than the weak dollar, could not come at a better time. In recent weeks, the subprime mortgage debacle has led to market turmoil, and several hedge funds — major buyers of contemporary art — have been forced to shutter.

"There have been certain hedge funds driving the market," the owner of the I-20 gallery in Chelsea, Paul Judelson, said. "If several of these funds are hurt, then there might be a little fall."

Prices of contemporary art have been steadily rising over the past several years, making it seem like there has been nowhere to go but further up. New record-high prices were set recently for paintings by Andy Warhol — his "Green Car Crash (Green Burning Car 1)" sold in May for $71.7 million — and Mark Rothko, whose "White Center (Yellow, Pink and Lavender on Rose)" sold at Sotheby's in May for $72.84 million.

Such euphoric pricing, however, seems to be a thing of the past.

"There's a mindset that's been broken — that it would just go up and up and up, like what happened with the housing market," professor of economics at George Mason University, Tyler Cowen, said.

Mr. Goodman says he doesn't even watch the art market. "I watch the housing market — when that starts to go down, then I have a problem," he said. Mr. Goodman predicted that in 2008, there would be an adjustment downward for the art market. "I've been doing this for 50 years and have been through three or four adjustments," Mr. Goodman said. "Things can't just keep going up and up and up."

The funds used to purchase contemporary art tends to be expendable income, and when money becomes scarce, luxury items are usually the first to go. "When there's uncertainty, everyone feels poorer and postpones purchases," Mr. Cowen said.

There will be fewer buyers flipping their art purchases to turn a profit. "Turning over the art rapidly and the quick flipping, I tend to think that is over," Mr. Cowen said.

"If you're buying art for speculation, then you're more liable to get hit," Deborah Buck, an art dealer who owns Buck House, an antique shop on Madison Avenue, said. "Art is a place to put money, but not a place to make money."

The artists most likely to feel an impact from a downturn in the economy are those that have recently come on the scene or are trying to break into it. With the contemporary art market being so hot during recent years, many newartistswere able to jump on board and find success in a short amount of time.

"If people no longer want to pay these prices, what happens to these artists?" Mr. Judelson asked. They are not likely to be able to make their primary living off their art any more.

This may not be such a bad thing. "If buyers are more cautious, in many ways the art world is better off," Mr. Cowen said. Regardless of the market, it is safe to say that there will always be purchasers of top-tier art. "Generally speaking, top collectors are never gun shy and will likely continue to chase blue chip work — their passion," Blair Clarke of Voltz Clarke, an art dealing business for emerging contemporary artists, said.

Most in the contemporary art world are wary of making any predictions about how the recent stock market performance will affect their business because August is traditionally a slow month in the art world; they also want to wait to see how the art will sell in the fall auctions and fairs. An emeritus professor of economics at Harvard, Richard Caves, said that no matter what kind of period the stock market is going through, art always is a risky asset, especially when it's fashionable art. "Contemporary art has been in a boom state for a while, but there's a lot of chance that it will drop out of fashion," he said.