Iraq Pullout Could Give Market an Anxiety Attack
Hey, the end of a war is supposed to be a good thing, especially when it comes to America's four-year conflict in Iraq, which has cost about $567 billion and thousands of American lives. As far as the stock market goes, though, Iraq might not be a good test case.
A few years back, some pros tell me, the end of this war would have sparked a spirited market rally, perhaps a quick rise of 200 to 300 points in the Dow. No more, they say. I rang up a half-dozen market observers, and their overriding view is that the withdrawal of American troops poses a serious risk for the financial markets.
One, in fact, sees the possibility of a significant market decline.
Take Boston investment adviser Bill Rhodes of Rhodes Analytics, a former strategist at Merrill Lynch. He contends the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq would be construed negatively in many quarters around the world because it would be viewed as an American defeat. Further, he says, a withdrawal would encourage Islamist extremists and heighten investor fears of a breakout of terrorist activity in America.
"If we're seen going home with our tail between our legs, why would that encourage anyone to buy American stocks?" he asks.
The chief investment strategist of D.A. Davidson & Co., the Northwest's biggest regional brokerage firm, headquartered in Great Falls, Mont., takes it one step further: "All hell could break loose," Fred Dickson says.
He says he worries that the unstable political climate in Iraq could easily spread to such neighboring countries as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Likewise, he points out, nervous traders could well push up the price of crude oil to the $85- to $90-a-barrel range. Such a surge, combined with the weak housing picture, could well play havoc with the economy, he told me.
Mr. Dickson, who also expects the press to portray America's departure from Iraq as a defeat, is convinced the ingredients are in place in the Middle East for a bad few months following any pullout. The Dow, he believes, could tumble a fast 15% to 20%.
"We're not about to see the rallies that followed World War II and our leaving Vietnam," he says. "We'll be leaving the Middle East a political minefield, with just too many unknowns and uncertainties, and that is bound to create an adverse market reaction," he argued.
A decidedly negative impact from an Iraq pullout is also seen by West Coast day trader Arnold Silver: "As a market event, I think it's a nonevent, although it might temporarily boost energy stocks through a rapid and sharp increase in the price of oil," he said. "A withdrawal, plain and simple, is an admitted defeat. You have extremists in this world who want to change the name of this country from ‘the United States of America' to ‘the United States of
Islam,' and the departure of American troops from Iraq would only tend to convince them that such a goal over time is not only not unrealistic, but quite achievable."
He also said he thinks a withdrawal now would be "a signal of weakness to the bad guys" — whom he describes as Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and President Putin of Russia — to become far more aggressive in their opposition to American goals.
Mr. Silver, who also manages money for wealthy clients, tells me pretty emphatically: "If I knew we were pulling out of Iraq tomorrow, I would be a seller today after what might be a brief, short-lived rally."
A mixed investor response is what an economics professor at the University of Maryland, Peter Morici, says he thinks lies ahead after a pullout. Initially, he says he expects the market to jump. But then, he says, euphoria should give way to "great and legitimate concern" about the price of oil, which will likely pull the market down.
So what will happen to the price of oil upon a pullout? "I'm not sure," he says, "but it certainly wouldn't stabilize it." More importantly, he adds, "A withdrawal also means you're pushing back the front line against terrorism."
Global money manager Jim Rogers says he thinks the dollar and the bond market would be major beneficiaries of a withdrawal; ditto commodities, especially oil. With the rise in stocks getting narrower and narrower, however, it's late in the game for equities — so any Iraqi rally would be the final top, he said.
Finally, the chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., Michael Metz, says he sees ominous implications from an Iraq withdrawal. "We're looking at increased turmoil throughout the Middle East and a possible disruption in the supply of oil," Mr. Metz says. "And who's to say Iraq's problems wouldn't spread to Saudi Arabia? For the stock market, it's bound to make things more uncertain and more volatile."
