Treasuries Rise, Pushing 10-Year Yields to Six-Month Lows

U.S. Treasuries rose, sending yields on 10-year notes to six-month lows, after a report showing manufacturing growth in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly contracted added to expectations the economy is slowing.

Interest-rate futures show traders are starting to price in odds that the Federal Reserve may even cut interest rates by the end of the year. Central bankers left their target rate for overnight loans between banks unchanged yesterday for a second consecutive policy meeting at 5.25%.

Yields on 10-year notes fell about 8 basis points, or 0.08 percentage points, to 4.65% at 1:03 p.m. in New York, according to broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. It's the biggest drop since July 17. The price of the 4 7/8% security due August 2016 rose 19/32, or $5.94 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 23/32.

Traders are pricing in about a 6% chance the Fed will cut its target rate, according to the fed funds futures contract for December traded on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Yields on Eurodollar futures maturing next September fell as much as 9 basis points, indicating traders increased bets on interest-rate cuts by the Fed.

The contracts are bets on a three-month lending rate that closely tracks the Fed's target rate.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index declined to minus 0.4 from 18.5 in August, which was the highest in 16 months. Readings below zero signal contraction. The gauge averaged 12.4 last year.

The index of American leading economic indicators fell 0.2% in August for a second straight month.