Submitted by Seatac_Astronomy, Feb 3, 2007 01:48

The underlying logic of an American attack on Iran would necessarily be the destruction of the present Iranian government as quickly as possible. There simply is no point in a war to cause "economic pain", nor can America depend on an uprising of minorities unless the national military forces are eliminated first.

Since every passing month brings Iran closer to deployment of a nuclear arsenal, and hegemony in the Middle East, a war is probably inevitable. The Rules of Engagement which we have seen in Iraq would simply be swept away. Only a swift, brutal, and extremely lethal campaign has any chance of success.

An opening strike would attempt to kill as many of the government leaders as possible – and likely would be unsuccessful. Simultaneously one would expect the immediate capture or destruction of every Iranian facility on the straits of Hormuz in order to safeguard the transportation of oil and military forces through the region.

24 x 7 follow-up strikes would eliminate the Iranian refineries as well as every power plant, harbor, telecommunications center, and major bridge in the country. Oil fields would be left untouched.

Prudent military commanders would ruthlessly expel every living creature on the Persian Gulf coast which could not be positively identified as a member of the American forces.

There would be small ground force invasions from both the Afghanistan and Iraqi sides to fix certain Iranian military units in place. Those Iranian units would be rapidly annihilated, and then the invaders will withdraw, leaving open borders for the incursions of Special Operations Forces.

The Iranian retaliation would be world-wide and terrible in cost, involving successful terrorist strikes throughout the Middle East and in the United States with thousands of civilian casualties. Russian air defense systems supplied to the Iranians would prove effective and difficult to suppress. Chinese anti-ship missiles would be unveiled and cause substantial naval casualties. The Iranians would attempt to use their hidden nuclear weapons against the American forces.

In the end however, the Iranian defenses will fail with catastrophic losses to their forces, the Iranians will be unable to control the straits of Hormuz and oil supplies to the rest of the world would be maintained.

Within one month, the Iranian national economy will lie in ruins, set back 200 years to pre-industrial level. There won't be anything left of their nuclear weapons industry but radioactive rubble. The national government will collapse in the aftermath of a half-million casualties per week and the loss of its military and police forces. Minority tribal groups will divide the country and the civilian population will suffer in legendary measure. Most of this won't be reported.

There will be no American reconstruction aid to Iran. We will be dealing with our own problems in the aftermath.

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