Submitted by Steve Zell, Mar 12, 2007 11:43

French President Jacques Chirac is wise not to seek re-election, since his candidacy would deprive Gaullist candidate Nicolas Sarkozy of crucial votes he would need to win. Chirac has been an enigmatic figure throughout his career. He was once heralded as the next De Gaulle, but his disputes with former President Giscard d'Estaing's allowing massive Arab immigration during the 1970's (not entirely Chirac's fault) divided the right, and enabled the victory of Socialist Francois Mitterrand in 1981, which was disastrous for France's economy. Although Chirac has long advocated tax reduction and a more business-friendly government, he has frequently backed down when confronted by France's extremely powerful labor unions, to whom De Gaulle gave the "right to strike" against the government in his 1958 Constitution.

Chirac had a golden opportunity to revive the French economy when he won the Presidency in 1995 and held an 80% majority in Parliament which could have lasted three years, but he squandered it by veering left, and not cracking down on the labor unions when he had the chance, and his dissolution of Parliament in 1997 in an attempt to save unpopular Prime Minister Alain Juppe led to a Socialist majority, and Chirac became a lame duck for five years.

Chirac has long been a charismatic figure with many good ideas, who has weakened with age and tends to waffle and cave under pressure from a hostile press and French labor unions. It is now time for him to pass the torch to the younger, dynamic Nicolas Sarkozy, whose experience as Finance Minister and Interior Minister should enable him to deal with France's two most pressing crises--its stagnant, overtaxed, government-dominated economy and lawless Muslim population, if he has the courage under pressure that Chirac lacked. Immigration is an extremely volatile issue in France: any crackdown draws cries of racism from the left and the press, but weakness tends to lose votes to the neo-fascist Front National party, so Sarkozy will have to explain his actions both forcefully and carefully if elected.

Sarkozy will need help from the National Assembly--if he faces a hostile Socialist majority, Sarkozy will be unable to give the French economy the shock treatment it needs. But if Sarkozy wins the Presidency, President Bush and America will discover a much friendlier France.

Note: The writer lived in France from 1984 to 1995, and is married to a French woman who has followed French politics via satellite TV ever since.

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