Submitted by Jen, Jul 2, 2007 00:28

There's a couple of problems with the constant comparisons to Howard Dean. First, Howard Dean was THE LEADER in the polls at this point in the race - Obama is not. Second, Howard Dean's grass roots support didn't materialize because he wasn't on the ground campaigning enough and drawing NEW supporters. Many of those screaming fans you heard in the background of his TV appearances were people that HE bussed from one appearance to the next, so they didn't truly represent voter support, which revealed itself in the election results.

Obama has been working his pants off to take his online supporters OFFLINE and get them to commit not only their money, but their time and effort into his campaign, an effort that he's had a great deal of success with. Who knows how many of those contributors will translate to actual votes for him, but he knows where Howard Dean failed and is doing his darndest to correct those problems.

Given the fact that Dean was at the top of the polls and his candidacy fizzled in two weeks, how can people make predictions about any candidate at this point in the race? We've had upstart candidates like Dean who were at the top of the polls AND raised the most money, yet died in the first primary, and we've had establishment candidates that were at the top of the polls and outraised most of their competitors and still didn't get the nomination OR got the nomination, but didn't win the general election. Plus, how does one person (Howard Dean) equal a TREND? His results don't mean that all other "non-establishment" candidates will fare the same.

Personally, I think the current polls still represent Hillary's name recognition, which she's built over nearly 2 decades in the national limelight. Obama just began his ads in Iowa, so his advertising should help him. I think Obama's 1st and 2nd quarter results are even more outstanding because Hillary tried to shut him down financially by having her staff threaten supporters who dared to contribute to Obama, yet Obama still found a way to raise the cash he needs.

I'm not making any predictions. All Obama can do is run the best campaign he possibly can, and he's doing that. He's doing AMAZING!!!

Note: Comments are screened, and in some cases edited, before posting. We reserve the right to reject anything we find objectionable.