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Reader comment on:
A Habitable World?
in response to reader comment: Mark Steyn and demographics

Submitted by Rick Gibson, Jul 17, 2007 04:10

Joe: You take Mark to task for going on and on about sustainable reproduction rates for nations. After all, you say, population levels have always gone up and down. There are lots of Europeans. What difference does it make if their populations go down by, oh lets say, 40%. Still plenty of Europeans, so, so what? You are missing a few footnotes here. First, no population levels have not really gone up and down over history. They have pretty much just gone up. With a few notable exceptions, such as the Black Death -- which was not widely regarded as a good thing -- population has always gone up. So, no population free-falls are not something anyone is used to. There is no guarantee that the European nations will survive the current trend. They might, but that is just speculation Second, there is a geometry to population decrease as well as increase. We are all familiar with the logic of geometric increase, 2 x 2 =4, 4 x 4 = 16, 16 x 16 =, so that, if a population is increasing rapidly, the total numbers get really staggering. What many people do not realize is that the logic also works in reverse. If today's adults have half as many kids as before, that means that the next generation's breeding population is half the size of this one. If that generation continues to breed so anemically, then the next generation is only one-fourth of today's. And so on. If you run the numbers on this, you see that, once the cycle begins, it is very hard to turn around. Third, you ignore the peculiar finances of the European nations. As we all know, Western Europe spends a whole lot more on social welfare -- pensions, unemployment insurance and so forth -- than does America. This elaborate program was sustainable, if not easily so, when there were alot of young working people supporting relatively few old retired folks. Now, as the huge Baby Boom generation becomes retired, and as it is replaced in the work force by a much smaller generation, we have a situation where a much smaller number of workers are being asked to pay for Rolls Royce benefits for a much larger population of retirees. This is not going to work. At some point, the whole house of cards will come down. Thus far, the Europeans have gotten around the problem by importing immigrants to fill up their empty countries, but since most of the immigrants are Islamic and hate Europe, this particular strategy probabl will not work so well, long term. In short, there are many reasons to believe that Europe is locked into a death spiral, from which it will not be able to escape. I personally think that Europe will turn around before the end, but they do not have a great deal of time to justify my optimism.

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Other reader comments on this article

Comment	By	Date
If you think that people of certain countries will have no impact on climate change, think again. The true heart... [MORE]	Glenn	Aug 2, 2007 17:49
Uh oh, we are besieged by ruinous demographic decline! There's only 6 and a half billion of us left!! Quick,... [MORE]	Jeffrey Kroll	Jul 17, 2007 16:07
Mark, You talk sense while making me laugh, and we will need lots of logic and laughter to combat the... [MORE]	Bill Brunhofer	Jul 17, 2007 13:33
Al Gore new band for the next dead earth concert [MORE]	Karen	Jul 17, 2007 08:19
Whereas I enjoy watching the spectacle of the left's latest folly, "global changing" and the chanting of so many wise... [MORE]	John Reeves	Jul 17, 2007 00:45
There is only one thing I can say about Live Aid and those around the world who want to "save"... [MORE]	Mario	Jul 16, 2007 21:14
Men need not leave it up to women, equipped as they are with contraceptive pills, IUDs, and the addresses of... [MORE]	Kralizec	Jul 16, 2007 19:31
Apparently, the population of the developed world isn't shrinking fast enough to suit the intellectual elite'; they wanted Zero Population... [MORE]	eon	Jul 16, 2007 17:27
Writing you Mark, just because I so enjoy, admire and appreciate your work ... don't really expect you to respond... [MORE]	Bill Griffiths	Jul 16, 2007 17:00
Good thing that the world plant community hasn't yet figured out how to hire an attorney to stop the "anti-CO2... [MORE]	owen leach	Jul 16, 2007 16:36
Nigeria and Yemen are not included in their equation because population reduction and saving the environment are not the point.... [MORE]	Assistant Village Idiot	Jul 16, 2007 16:26
Always refreshing to read a Steyn review, especially if it's musically as well as politically involved.... kind of a confluence... [MORE]	Eugene Wager	Jul 16, 2007 14:57
Mark, you keep harping on about 'replacement level' reproduction being so important. The implication being that every country in the... [MORE]	joe hitchens	Jul 16, 2007 14:32
Hi Mr. Hitchens; You are wrong demographics have had no impact on the survival of countries. During the late 19th century... [MORE]	Ruy Diaz	Jul 16, 2007 16:21
"......what you are saying is nonsense. Trying to persuade people...." I guess I missed that, I'll have to re-read it [MORE]	Blandly Urbane	Jul 16, 2007 17:00
Joe, you're completely missing the point. Mark isn't suggesting that the worlds population as a whole is going to drop... [MORE]	Sam B	Jul 16, 2007 17:43
Joe: Mark's numbers don't lie. A larger percentage of Europeans will disappear this century than any other, including the centuries... [MORE]	steyn fan	Jul 16, 2007 18:40
Just think - some nuts want to have Al Gore for President - can you imagine the White House all... [MORE]	James	Jul 17, 2007 01:10
Joe, this is not about optimality. Here is some arithmetic: The world has, say, 6 billion people. Assume that the... [MORE]	supermartingale	Jul 17, 2007 02:55
Joe: You take Mark to task for going on and on about sustainable reproduction rates for nations. After all, you...	Rick Gibson	Jul 17, 2007 04:10
If you had read America Alone as I have, you would understand that replacement level of population has nothing to... [MORE]	Andrew K	Jul 17, 2007 04:58
I do hope the good professor follows his own dictum off putting future generations into his own hands. And washes... [MORE]	Wolf Terner	Jul 16, 2007 14:00
Rock musicians are all deaf and their audiences are little better. So should we be talking about a carbon earprint?... [MORE]	richard sutherland	Jul 16, 2007 12:28
I would invite all liberals to stop having any children at all. My conservative friends and I will be happy... [MORE]	Sue	Jul 16, 2007 11:50
Few years back, Bill Bryson, another American who's world famous but for things other than stiff neck and lack of... [MORE]	Boris Ben	Jul 16, 2007 11:47
If people in the UK have 1 less child it will mean they will bring in one more immigrant so... [MORE]	marginalizedactiondinosaur.net	Jul 16, 2007 09:47

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A Habitable World?
in response to reader comment: Mark Steyn and demographics