Bad Idea to Skip Iowa - Reader comments at The New York Sun

Recent Blog Posts

Reader comment on:
Skip Iowa Next Time

Submitted by JoeOhio, Aug 13, 2007 09:13

Since the "reforms" of the early 1970s, the presidential nominations of both major parties have been pretty much decided well before the summer nominating conventions by the caucus and primary voters. Since 1976 only one major party candidate for president has won their party's nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire--Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas in 1992. No Republican candidate for presdient since 1964 has been nominated without winning one or both of those early voting states. (Note: the Iowa caucuses were actually insitituted in1972). Back-to-back victories in both early voting states will just about guarrantee the winner's nomination (e.g., Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004).

The Clinton case itself was a bit of fluke because the candidacy of an Iowa favorite son, Senator Tom Harkin, made the 1992 Iowa caucus results a nullity and the other Democrats were able to simply skip the caucuses altogether. Despite his well-published scandals in early 1992, Clinton's second place in New Hampshire behind former Massachussetts Senator Paul Tsongas was enough to sustain his candidacy until the more hospitable South voted. With Governor Vilsack's departure from the 2008 Democratic contest, there is no Iowa favorite son candidate in either party to justify a decison by other candidates to skip the Iowa caucuses. Skipping Iowa is a bad idea for another reason....Iowa has become swing state in the fall election.

If Governor Romney finishes first in Iowa and New Hampshire--and he current leads in polls of Republican voters in both states--he will vault from 4th place into the top tier and quickly become the main conservative alternative to Mayor Giuliani. Whoever emerges from the pack early as the conservative alternative to frontrunner Giuliani will probably win the Republican nomination in 2008.

Mayor Giuliani's strategy for winning the 2008 Republican nomination rests on the assumption that, unless social/religious conservative opposition to his candidacy coalesces around a single opponent relatively early, he will win Florida and the lions' share of the delegates on Super Duper Tuesday and become the presumptive nominee by mid-February. So, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and the other Republican candiates would be well advised not to skip Iowa or New Hamsphire.

Note: Comments are screened, and in some cases edited, before posting. We reserve the right to reject anything we find objectionable.

Other reader comments on this article

Comment	By	Date
The most powerful voices in the Republican apparatus are focused on things the American people either don't care about or... [MORE]	Dave	Aug 20, 2007 14:09
Dear Mr. Sager, Please keep speaking out. Your description of the Republican Party today sheds light on its transformation over the... [MORE]	Stewart Gardner	Aug 19, 2007 11:10
via Penraker: Did you know Sam Brownback says that in every speech? That creeps me out, to tell you the truth. So... [MORE]	jill	Aug 15, 2007 23:31
Glad to read that maybe, just maybe, these early panderings to Evangelicals in Iowa may finally lose traction in Republican... [MORE]	Joy Brower	Aug 14, 2007 01:59
The thing about Mitt Romney here is that I am amazed at the investment of what, $4 million? And all... [MORE]	Dave	Aug 13, 2007 17:21
Iowa just doesn't represent the voters the GOP needs to win in 2008. Iowa agrarians are not the demographic that... [MORE]	Tampa Jeff	Aug 13, 2007 17:01
Those seem like standard Republican stances these days. [MORE]	Gus	Aug 13, 2007 15:56
which says you can neither raise nor spend money on the Presidential election until January 1 of the year of... [MORE]	Soop	Aug 13, 2007 15:40
Nice way to look like a loss for guliani as a plus for him. The fact was he had no... [MORE]	jon	Aug 13, 2007 10:47
You can't put a price tag on the votes for the Iowa Straw Poll. The money spent leading to that... [MORE]	Allen	Aug 13, 2007 10:12
The Republican Party has disintegrated from the Goldwater-Reagan roots of the 1960s and 1970s. I have always been a member... [MORE]	Richard Leonardon	Aug 13, 2007 10:11
...but great article. particularly this line: "Mr. Romney promised not a chicken in every pot, but "a button on every computer"... [MORE]	Kevin	Aug 13, 2007 09:20
Since the "reforms" of the early 1970s, the presidential nominations of both major parties have been pretty much decided well...	JoeOhio	Aug 13, 2007 09:13
A good article. I would add a couple of points here: Romney got 31% of the votes there. Did he win? Consider this:... [MORE]	Michael	Aug 13, 2007 13:08
Hmm,,,I have to disagree with the writer's assumptions. Romney came into the Straw Poll as the frontrunner in both Iowa... [MORE]	IowaGOP	Aug 13, 2007 09:09
I am proud to be an American when I see the way the straw poll seemed to cut through some... [MORE]	Carson	Aug 13, 2007 08:44
First Giuliani skips the Ames straw poll, isolating Romney and diminishing his victory. Then, citing unspecified scheduling conflicts, he acts... [MORE]	jack	Aug 13, 2007 07:26
This article not only shows great insight but one hell of a lot of work in the research department. Well... [MORE]	Walter Holtsmaster	Aug 13, 2007 01:59
Hah! Exactly right, Iowa IS irrelevant. Stick a fork in them and McCain, they're both done! [MORE]	Joe	Aug 13, 2007 01:49

Reader comment on:Skip Iowa Next Time

Other reader comments on this article

Comment on Skip Iowa Next Time

Reader comment on:
Skip Iowa Next Time