Submitted by Michael O'Hara, Aug 15, 2007 23:42

The comment in your article that "we have 40 years left" (before we run out of oil) should not leave anyone with a comforting feeling. We will never really "run out of oil", but we will (and have) run out of cheap oil.

The critical point to watch for is when world-wide oil production reaches it's peak level. Individual wells, oil fields and national groups of fields all have predictable patterns of production over their life cycles and the world production reflects the same patterns. The production increases to a point where approximately half of the supply has been pumped, and as the pressure underground decreases, it becomes more difficult to pump the remaining oil from the ground and the daily production decreases. The US oil fields reached this point in 1972 and there are many industry analysts who feel we're reaching world-wide peak right about now (or within the next ten years at the latest). As the demand for liquid petroloeum continues to rise and the production levels off, the gap between supply and demand will cause oil prices to rise. As the production levels fall, the gap increases and prices rise further.

The technology to produce liquid fuels from coal, tar sands, shale and plants are not sufficiently robust to replace more than a small percentage of the gap in supply at this time.

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