Submitted by Rob, Sep 9, 2007 16:58

SUMMARY: Unless something changes, Clinton will win the Democratic party nomination, Romney (!) will win several states that vote in January, but Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), which includes California and New York (Giuliani strongholds) will probably decide the Republican party nomination (Thompson is an X-factor).

I think Iowa (Jan. 14), Michigan (Jan. 15), South Carolina (Jan. 19/29), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22, but could move up), Florida (Jan. 29), California (Feb. 5) and New York (Feb. 5) will likely determine the Presidential candidates for November 2008. The Georgia Republican and Democratic primaries are February 5, 2008, and could be key in the GOP nomination. The Virginia and D.C. Republican and Democratic primaries are February 12, 2008, and may be a factor in the GOP nomination if Super Tuesday doesn't produce a front-runner. The Massachusetts and Texas Republican and Democratic primaries are March 4, 2008.

I have been following the state-by-state polling using a Wikipedia site that collects and tracks such data (sources for all polls are fully attributed). (FYI, I'm the "chart guy" on these sites.) I provide my personal observations of the trends for each race below.

REPUBLICANS
====Iowa====
Romney has a solid 15 point lead on everyone else, and about 30-35% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Iowa

====Michigan====
Romney has a solid 9 point lead on everyone else, and about 30% of voters are still undecided and Thompson is showing strength.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Michigan

====South Carolina====
Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-25% of the vote, and over 30% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#South_Carolina

====Nevada====
Romney has a 5 point lead on Thompson and they are running neck-in-neck, and about 25% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada

====New Hampshire====
Romney has a 10 point lead on everyone else, and about 20% of voters are still undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

====Florida====
Similar to South Carolina, Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-30% of the vote, and over 25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Florida

====California====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 30% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has nearly crossed the 20% mark, and about 20-25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#California

====New York====
Giuliani (weakening) maintains 45% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has crossed the 10% mark, and about 25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_York

DEMOCRATS
====Iowa====
Clinton is slowly building and recently passed Edwards. Obama is within 5 points and keeping pace with Clinton. 30% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Iowa

====Michigan====
Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with 20-25% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Michigan

====South Carolina====
Clinton leads Obama by about 5 points. About 20-25% remain undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#South_Carolina

====Nevada====
Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with about 30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Nevada

====New Hampshire====
Clinton has expanded her lead to about 15 points on Obama with about 20-30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire

====Florida====
Clinton commands a 20% lead on Obama with about 25-30% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Florida

====California====
Clinton has a 30% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#California

====New York====
Clinton has a 30-40% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_York

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