Submitted by Justin, Oct 2, 2007 18:27

It's inevitable the Ryan Braun will easily win the NL Rookie of the Year race. The guy has gone .324/34 HR/97 RBI/91 runs with a ridiculous 1.004 OPS in 451 ABs (112 games). Give him a full year, and he might be in ARod territory - .300/50 hr/130 rbi/120 runs. By comparison, Troy Tulowitzki, the clear #2 in the race, has hit .294/24 HR/99 RBI/ 104 R in 609 ABs.

In other words, Braun has a hit for better average, hit 10 more HRs and essentially has equal RBI and run numbers with 150+ fewer ABs. If the ROY was just about offensive categories (as there is clearly no worthy rookie pitcher this year), Ryan Braun is by far, the runaway winner.

Too bad offensive is all the writers (ie. the voters) go by, because if defense or a winning means anyway, Tulowitzki deserves strong consideration. Defensively, Braun is an absolutely pathetic 3B field, with 26 errors and a pitiful .898 fielding percentarge, and a huge liability to the Brewers. Though his offensive efforts should not go unnoticed, Braun's fielding struggles has been significant in the 2nd half meltdown of the Brewers.

By comparison, Tulowitzki is one of the leading candidates for Gold Glove at 3B. He has been solid with the bat all year, but really started heating up in the final month of the season. That the Rockies are now in the playoffs is agreeably more to do with Troy Tulowitzki than Matt Holliday or Jeff Francis.

If defensive and winning means anything to the writers, Tulowitzki should take the ROY over Braun.

NL ROY List
1) Troy Tulowitzki
2) Ryan Braun
3) Tim Lincecum - filthy, filthy stuff. 95 MPH fastball... with movement. Showed more than a few glimpses of greatness, but also more than a few bouts with control issues. Once he gets those under wraps, he will be a perennial Cy Young candidate.
4) Chris Young - Almost 30/30 is too good to ignore, but a pathetic .237 avg, just 67 RBIs and 0.763 OPS.
5) James Loney/Hunter Pence - Both guys would be ranked higher, if they had gotten more ABs. Pence was a leading candidate before a mid-season injury put him on the deck. Loney didn't get his shot until June, but has been a terror ever since, finishing .331/15/67/41/.919 in just 344 ABs! Both guys are future all-stars.

AL ROY List
In general, not nearly as interesting. Only two worthy candidates here IMO. A ton of Red Sox.
1) Brian Bannister - Excellent command of his pitches. He doesn't have the stuff of a Lincecum and doesn't get K's, but he doesn't walk many or give up many hits. Barring a few bad starts in September, he would have been in the AL ERA race. If he was on any other team, he would have 15+ wins. 12 still isn't bad though.
2) Dustin Pedroia - Looks like a steady, top-of-the-order guy who hits for high average and has a bit of pop, for many years to come.
3) Hideki Okajima - Absolutely dominant out of the bullpen.
4) Daisuke "Dice-K" Matsuzaka - He hasn't lived up to the hype, but despite the occasional struggles, he's been pretty solid..
5) Jeremy Guthrie - Another good, solid young pitcher on a bad team. Deserved way better than 7-5. Was a top candidate just after the all-star break, but fell out of the race with a weak final 2 months

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