Submitted by Randy, Oct 25, 2007 10:52

A-Rod is likely at the end of his most productive years. His defense has been slipping, and if it continues, his value will drop significantly if he's playing 1B or DH. He is not the 25 year old A-Rod, very good with glove at the one of the most important defensive positions, and all world at the plate. Right now he's just all world at the plate and competent at a less important defensive position. And there are no teams under the illusion they should expect him to continue through his mid and late 30s without declining at both plate and field.

Even when he was 25 years old, top teams thought he was worth less than $20M per year. He had to go to a lousy team that bid against themselves to the tune of an extra $5M a year and 3 years. But since then he's decided he will no longer play for lousy teams. When he was 28, he could only get the Red Sox to take on his contract if he cut it to $20M per year. The Yankees took him on, but only at $17M per year.

A-Rod isn't getting a 10 year deal. He might not get a 7 year deal. And at best, he'll get $25M per year. And his best possible deal is with the Yankees, an extension keeps the $21M left on the Texas subsidy, they have the biggest budget, and they need him. They'll give him a 4 year $100M extension to turn his current deal into a 7 year $181M deal that only costs them $22M per year. And he'll accept. Gratefully.

Oh, and you simply don't understand how bad the Yankees starting staff was last year, Wang was the only solidly above average starter, Moose was awful, Pettitte and Clemens were blah and Clemens didn't provide enough innings. It won't take much from Joba, Hughes and Kennedy to provide a much more solid starting rotation that puts less pressure on the bullpen. Even with reversion to the mean from Posada/A-Rod, the team improves significantly with those young starters.

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