Submitted by dave crockett, Dec 12, 2006 10:13

The toughest course of action for any manager to take is to admit that his or her fundamental strategic assumption is fundamentally wrong. It's not because they're stupid or never learned about sunk cost fallacies. Far more often it is because assumptions by their nature tend to go unquestioned and also because admitting that our assumptions are wrong is like handing someone else a loaded pistol. It's not exactly suicide but in a cutthroat business it's the next closest thing.

I fault Thomas for his initial assumptions about what Marbury could bring to NY, and wasn't crazy about the deal from the start, but I can't pound Thomas for riding that decision all the way to his inevitable firing. Bringing Marbury to NY was from day 1 a referendum on his worth as a player. For him to end up back on the market would be a clear signal that he had little value. So given his initial decision to take on Marbury and his contract, Thomas (or any other GM) was for all practical purposes locked in. Put it this way, had the Phoenix Suns not been a family-run business all the Colangelos would have been unemployed after dealing Jason Kidd to build around Marbury and then taking the mega-cap hit necessary to move him.

The Thomas Era will be characterized as probably the most ironic in Knick lore, if nothing else. The real irony is in comparing Thomas' reign with Joe Dumars' time in Detroit. The two had such "chemistry" on the court yet in their blueprints for team-building couldn't be more different. It's clear the two have widely divergent understandings of why the "Bad Boy" Pistons were so successful. Dumars emphasizes team defense, ball movement, player versatility, and above all high basketball IQ. Thomas emphasizes talent. (Although some trivialize this aspect of Thomas' management but he does have a rare eye for talent, spotting players in virtually every venue.)

In fact, many of the things that you mention that the Knicks must do to dig themselves out of their current hole are things Thomas excels at. He's especially good at scouring the minor leagues to find cheap, serviceable role players (e.g., Jackie Butler, DeMarr Johnson). Despite giggles from his critics it is hard to deny that Thomas has drafted well compared to other GMs with picks in similar spots. Of course, the things he's undeniably horrible at--managing the cap (or perhaps even being aware of its existence)--are why the Knicks are in their current predicament.

Moving forward, it's hard to know where the Knicks should look for executive talent. Assuming that the Dolans will keep control of the team, it is difficult to trust any decision where they have the ultimate say. If they were better judges of talent themselves the team also wouldn't be in this predicament.

Note: Comments are screened, and in some cases edited, before posting. We reserve the right to reject anything we find objectionable.