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Giuliani's Hold on Lead Spot Is Eroding

Submitted by Brucer, Nov 12, 2007 14:32

For anyone who wants a truly unbiased measure of a candidate's electability, there are only two measures.

1. Fund-raising.

2. Polling Data. (But it has to be "apples-to-apples" polling data.)

The reason that polling data is always "taken with a grain of salt", is because the interpretation of the data is so easily manipulated.

The only "apples-to-apples" polling data that gives an objective measure of Republican candidates is from the states where the candidates have a somewhat comparable name recognition among those being polled. (IA, NH, SC, MI, NV.)

Let's take Pennslyvania for example. Is there any likely Republican voter in PA that hasn't heard of Giuliani? Exactly, they all know all about him. Now, how about Romney? Exactly, there are a sizeable number who have NO idea who he is. (He would have to spend HUNDREDS of millions of dollars in advertising to have everyone know about him across all 50 states. Giulinan and Thompson already have that without spending a dime.)

So is polling data from PA (or any of the other ~45 states where Romney hasn't spent time/money campaigning) a measure of whether likely Republican voters like Giuliani better than Romney? Of course not. It's simply a measure of who they have heard of.

The real question that the media (and Republicans at large) need to be asking is why Giuliani's polling numbers plummet in states where Romney is actively campaigning.


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Other reader comments on this article

Comment By Date

Saw a link to this article at www.polijam.com I am not too crazy about Giuliani. If you look at... [MORE]

Devin 

Nov 17, 2007 09:39

Funny how all the "front runners" all have pretty much the same views and voting records and they're all pushed... [MORE]

Bob_B. 

Nov 13, 2007 09:40

"Your Facts" hit the nail on the head. Everywhere Romney has spent significant time and money he has moved to... [MORE]

Bob 

Nov 12, 2007 17:56

If more people would stop to watch Fred Thompson in his riveting Red October performance the race would be over... [MORE]

Shawn 

Nov 12, 2007 17:50

The writer/publisher wants Rudy to lose so they lie in the headline. Rudy NEVER had the lead in either of... [MORE]

Mike 

Nov 12, 2007 17:40

When the sleaze reporting settles down the secularist press that could care less if it is Clinton, Bababblingbama, Guilliani or... [MORE]

Daniel 

Nov 12, 2007 17:37

Fred Thompson is blowing away all of the republican candidates in individual contributors and has by far the biggest grassroots... [MORE]

Brian W. 

Nov 12, 2007 17:26

Rommney is a Mormon. Romney is a bishop Mormon. Mormons believe God was once a man. They believe that every... [MORE]

george Faull 

Nov 12, 2007 17:13

If you're so concerned about his religion, look at Massachussetts. Did he turn into the Mormon Leader of New England... [MORE]

Lori 

Nov 12, 2007 17:27

We are electing a president, not a pope. His religious status does not concern me. Unless he is sacrificing goats... [MORE]

Justy 

Nov 12, 2007 18:13

Mr. Language Person strikes again! I'm sorry, but I must insist! [MORE]

FG 

Nov 13, 2007 06:35

Mormons have a very high goal to reach if they 're trying to be Gods. Does that mean God won't... [MORE]

glenda 

Nov 13, 2007 21:11

The system by which the two main parties nominate Presidential candidates is badly broken. Iowa surely is more representative of... [MORE]

Randolph Phillips 

Nov 12, 2007 17:07

There is not one mention of Ron Paul in this article, even after his record-breaking fundraiser on Nov. 5th. Why... [MORE]

John C 

Nov 12, 2007 16:53

Why do you insist on pretending that Dr. Paul is not a factor?" Ans: Because he isn't, and he won't be. [MORE]

Francis Urquhart 

Nov 12, 2007 17:11

I don't think anyone's pretending. Ron Paul is not a factor. The reason he isn't even mentioned is because he... [MORE]

GR 

Nov 12, 2007 18:48

Ron Paul wasn't mentioned because the discussion was on leaders for the nomination via good showings in the state primaries.... [MORE]

mungagungadin 

Nov 12, 2007 19:31

John C is absolutely right. Ron Paul offers what about 60 to 65% of Americans wish their government would do:... [MORE]

Claude Bailles 

Nov 12, 2007 19:58

Mike Huckabee is coming on strong with grass roots support. [MORE]

Phil 

Nov 12, 2007 16:45

The libs want everyone to beleive it is Gulliani vs HillDawg. It will not be. Hilldawg will lose in 08... [MORE]

daryel 

Nov 12, 2007 16:22

Following a comprehensive article on Mormonism by religious scholar Rev. Niehaus in www. firstthings.com that concludes Mormonism is not a... [MORE]

Stanislaus Pulle 

Nov 12, 2007 15:54

In the Marist poll Ron Paul (7%) has more support than former GOP darling Fred Thompson (5%) and just as... [MORE]

NG21 

Nov 12, 2007 15:53

Traditional opinion polls use limited set of voters to check and generalize that to project results and these results can't... [MORE]

ireachable 

Nov 14, 2007 10:50

Mike Huckabee = Seabiscuit remember that horse which everyone said it had no chance... well Huckabee looks primed to take... [MORE]

JohnnyPolo 

Nov 12, 2007 15:41

Me thinks McCain is going to gain...particularly on Rudy in New Hampshire but may surprise by finishing ahead of Romney... [MORE]

Denny Freeburn 

Nov 12, 2007 17:16

McCain goes into the same bucket with Ron Paul, nice people but wouldn't want to be governed by them. McCain... [MORE]

Justy 

Nov 12, 2007 18:25

With Daddy's money and contacts the payoff is Romney can buy a state or two. But as Republican founder Abraham... [MORE]

Robert Sieghardt 

Nov 12, 2007 15:25

What is clearly happening in this primary is that as people start to learn more about Giuliani beyond the 9/11... [MORE]

Dillon 

Nov 12, 2007 15:19

The GOP would be dumb to nominate Romney but then again they nominated Dole. Mccain was right on the war... [MORE]

matt cox 

Nov 12, 2007 15:06

This is crummy analysis. Do your homework. I am tired of hearing rationalizations and excuses for why Iowa and NH... [MORE]

Mark 

Nov 12, 2007 15:04

Romney wouldn't be winning if he weren't really good in everything he takes on. He really is the real deal. Giuliani... [MORE]

Scott 

Nov 12, 2007 15:02

For anyone who wants a truly unbiased measure of a candidate's electability, there are only two measures. 1. Fund-raising. 2. Polling Data....

Brucer 

Nov 12, 2007 14:32

I predicted on election night 04 that the best Republican ticket of 08 would be Romney/Guiliani because Romney has the... [MORE]

mungagungadin 

Nov 12, 2007 14:31

Core Character Counts !!! I Want The Opportunity To Take Care Of My Own Rather Than Give My Money To People... [MORE]

Brad 

Nov 12, 2007 14:29

Hey Brad; You are so right! And as far as I am concerned ( and many others in the grass... [MORE]

Ken 

Dec 2, 2007 15:36

Why should guiliania suffer for the hidden sins of his former Police commissioner?/ Hillary was given a free pass... [MORE]

francis Sparagna 

Nov 12, 2007 14:28

Dr. Ron Paul is the only candidate in either party who offers what 65 to 70% of republicans, democrats and... [MORE]

Claude 

Nov 12, 2007 14:25

Rudy Giuliani as president would be a disaster for this country. His disregard for alternative opinions, high handed tactics and... [MORE]

Nat 

Nov 12, 2007 14:21

And this is being written by a hard-core progressive Democrat! If I had to vote right now I would, of... [MORE]

Charlene Richards 

Nov 12, 2007 14:15

I love hearing from somebody that isn't affraid to go against the current, Say that again PLEASE [MORE]

Ken 

Dec 2, 2007 15:49

Giuliani is a gangster and Romney is a deceitful political opportunist. Of the Republicans only Ron Paul has a solid... [MORE]

Jed 

Nov 12, 2007 13:59

Okay...give the mormon the nomination but Hillary will pummel this guy. He has more conflicting views on every subject and no... [MORE]

Bob thompson 

Nov 12, 2007 13:54

The title of this article is inaccurate and misleading. Rudy's lead is not eroding. He hasn't lead in IA and... [MORE]

rhinosaurusrex 

Nov 12, 2007 13:53

If Giuliani never has a lead in a state, how is his lead in that state eroding? He has actually... [MORE]

Mark 

Nov 12, 2007 13:30

I keep wondering why people, the MSM, and the public somehow think that 2-3 primaries with so few electoral votes... [MORE]

Glenn Koons 

Nov 12, 2007 13:29

they're not electoral votes in the primary; they're delegates to the convention. But I get your point. [MORE]

Eric 

Nov 12, 2007 15:40

Romney is the obvious choice for Republicans. McCain is too old and has health problems and is too closely associated... [MORE]

doug lominac 

Nov 12, 2007 13:02

Strong Families, Strong Economy and Strong National Defense....Romney in not kidding about these three legs of his platform. He is... [MORE]

James Levy 

Nov 12, 2007 12:59

I can no longer support Giuliani because of Kerik, Robertson and the neocons. [MORE]

Sylvia Connelly 

Nov 12, 2007 12:42

Say & think as you will. That's our right as FREE citizen's (for now anyway). Giuliani has been in the... [MORE]

cuncrnd1 

Nov 12, 2007 12:39

Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee it doesn't matter. I know many people might like to scoff at this, but the bottom line... [MORE]

Sean Shepard 

Nov 12, 2007 12:38

With Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan and second place in Florida and Nevada according to realclearpolitics.com, Mitt Romney appears... [MORE]

David 

Nov 12, 2007 12:16

He bought every bit of it with his own cash! Seems his family wants him to be President more than... [MORE]

Mike W 

Nov 12, 2007 14:01

If Romney wins Iowa, New Hampshire and just one of the early Southern States, he'll have sufficient momentum to win... [MORE]

Andrew 

Nov 12, 2007 14:18

Romney's been running for president since college? Where did you come up with that? He has been in the private... [MORE]

Dillon 

Nov 12, 2007 15:36

His own cash? Well, in part, sure. But most of the cash his campaign has spent has been raised just... [MORE]

J Rogers 

Nov 12, 2007 15:43

You are either simply a Mitt-hater, or severely misinformed about your Presidential Politics, my friend. When you subtract his own... [MORE]

Brian B 

Nov 12, 2007 15:58

Why can't we ever elect someone who is actually smart and lived a truly successful life. I use to be... [MORE]

Doug M 

Nov 12, 2007 17:42

...just like John Corzine when it is all said and done! Corzine spent tens of millions buying the Governors mansion... [MORE]

Mike W 

Nov 12, 2007 19:15

Pat Robertson's endrosement will take him a good long way. Funny stuff. What Planned Parenthood next? [MORE]

Mike W 

Nov 12, 2007 19:21

Mike W is up in the night and cannot find the light switch. That money is his money. Look at... [MORE]

Harry Gibbons 

Nov 12, 2007 19:34

At the beginning of the election process I gave thought to voting for RUDY as the lesser of two evils... [MORE]

Roy M. Mattox 

Nov 12, 2007 12:07

After Rudy's failed run for the White House, Rudy today endordes Mitt Romney. Both agree that Hillary as president would... [MORE]

chuck the truck 

Nov 12, 2007 11:11

As Ron Paul continues his meteoric rise, we'll continue to see Giuliani's poll-based lead decrease. In fact, the polls are... [MORE]

Truth Seeds 

Nov 12, 2007 11:07

This guy is a top notch political candidate. He is smart, charismatic, a leader, and he has a strong family.... [MORE]

Chad 

Nov 12, 2007 10:53

Mitt Romney is simply the best qualified candidate in either party. [MORE]

John A. Willett Jr. 

Nov 12, 2007 10:40

With 60% undecided I think it's pretty unbelievable there's no metion of RON PAUL in this so called news report. [MORE]

B Noecker 

Nov 12, 2007 10:08

Concerted media blackout on Ron Paul's huge ground swell of grassroot support continues unabated. [MORE]

Mark 

Nov 12, 2007 09:57

Get Fred Thompson on it. nuff said gata [MORE]

Bill 

Nov 12, 2007 09:30

Mitt Romney's "quiet storm" continues in the early primary states. It is quite possible that the GOP race will be... [MORE]

Allen Ridge 

Nov 12, 2007 08:53

Why doesn't the MSM ever want to mention how good Ron Paul is doing? [MORE]

nate 

Nov 12, 2007 08:51

No other candidate, Democrat or Republican, is as impacted by bigotry and prejudice as Romney. For him to come out... [MORE]

Tom 

Nov 12, 2007 08:30

Of course Mrs. Clinton would want to run against Mr. Giuliani. He has lots of baggage which once exposed to... [MORE]

Patrick Welch 

Nov 12, 2007 08:30

Ron Paul is going to take New Hampshire. The pollsters only called registered Republicans who have land lines. It is... [MORE]

Jennifer 

Nov 12, 2007 08:27

I am a 30+ year Republican voter but I will NEVER vote for Giuliani. If he is the GOP candidate,... [MORE]

Richard 

Nov 12, 2007 07:52

Remember what RUDY did to the New York State Senatorial election that guaranteed Hillary the seat??? He developed prostate cancer... [MORE]

George 

Nov 12, 2007 07:41

i said it from a yr ago and i stand by my prediction. guillani nor clinton will be thier parties... [MORE]

robert hunter 

Nov 12, 2007 06:52

I can think of no one better to run this country than Mitt Romney. I appreciated Mitt's leadership during the... [MORE]

Jed Merrill 

Nov 12, 2007 02:51

I find it ironic that some readers will base their decision on who to vote for by what religion the... [MORE]

Ed Hetman 

Feb 4, 2008 16:02

Rudys on wife number 3police chief corrupt as can bea little inspectionreveals on reflectionthe apple's not bad, it's the tree [MORE]

Eric 

Nov 12, 2007 01:45

Huckabee is surging ahead in Iowa and bringing a huge crowd with him. I am totally impressed with Huckabee and... [MORE]

Chris 

Nov 11, 2007 23:11

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