Submitted by flow5, Feb 8, 2008 17:30

The rate-of-change in the proxy for Monetary Flows (MVt) bottoms in May/June. So real-gdp may be weak for 2 quarters but then it will rebound. The problem has to do with the rate-of-change in the proxy for inflation. There was a reversal in the rate-of-change in inflation this Jan. So far this reversal is not climbing faster than real-gdp.

1/1/2006

0.59

0.31

2/1/2006

0.22

0.11

3/1/2006

-0.14

-0.03

4/1/2006

-0.19

-0.07

5/1/2006

-0.22

-0.07

6/1/2006

-0.30

-0.02

7/1/2006

-0.13

-0.02

8/1/2006

-0.43

-0.18

9/1/2006

-0.40

-0.06

10/1/2006

-0.85

-0.18

11/1/2006

-0.29

-0.17

12/1/2006

0.12

-0.08

1/1/2007

0.34

0.00

2/1/2007

-0.14

-0.11

3/1/2007

-0.36

-0.17

4/1/2007

-0.27

-0.09

5/1/2007

-0.12

-0.15

6/1/2007

-0.04

-0.07

7/1/2007

0.16

-0.08

8/1/2007

0.15

-0.13

9/1/2007

-0.19

-0.09

10/1/2007

-0.48

-0.22

11/1/2007

0.14

-0.18

12/1/2007

0.45

-0.23

1/1/2008

0.70

0.11

2/1/2008

0.35

0.06

3/1/2008

0.16

0.08

4/1/2008

0.14

0.06

5/1/2008

0.09

0.04

6/1/2008

0.20

0.05

7/1/2008

0.33

0.10

8/1/2008

0.15

0.05

9/1/2008

0.00

0.13

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