Forget Reforming Burma While the Junta Rules

As the U.N. Security Council and its envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, work out how the oppressive Burmese regime might change its ways, the fundamental question is: Can the oppression be stopped without regime change?

Showing a classic reverence to peaceful resolutions, Mr. Gambari told reporters Friday that one of his chief goals now is to start a dialogue and overcome "a lot of mistrust on both sides" in Burma. The generals who have ruled the country with an iron fist will have to yield some, he indicated, and so will its Buddhist monks and the members of its democratic movement, led by Aung San Suu Kyi.

Let's take a closer look at this "mistrust." Soldiers with guns and orders to shoot to kill have lots of reasons to mistrust the saffron-robed monks. After all, those pesky monks dared to raise their shaved heads in protest against a pricing scheme that made it impossible for most Burmese to go to work, as well as against decades of living under one of the most oppressive regimes in the world.

Similarly, the unarmed demonstrators — or at least those lucky enough not to have been among the hundreds murdered and thousands imprisoned and tortured — may have a reason or two to mistrust the generals and soldiers.

"Both sides," see?

The junta leader, General Than Shwe, has a reason to mistrust Ms. Suu Kyi. The Burmese people voted for her in droves in a democratic election in 1990. "Oops," the generals thought, "did we declare democratic elections? We can't let the people decide who'll lead them." So they mistrust the winner.

Ms. Suu Kyi, who has been in prison or under house arrest since then and has been barred from having any direct access to a world that awarded her the Nobel Peace Prize, has a few reasons to mistrust General Shwe.

So what's a self-respecting world organization, faced with such mistrust on both sides, to do? If only both sides would somehow accommodate each other, the generals could continue to rule the country they unilaterally decided to rename from the hideout they carved out for themselves in the woods and now call their capital. Last week, Mr. Gambari traveled to Naypyidaw, the so-called capital of so-called Myanmar, to convey a message to General Shwe and his lieutenants from Secretary-General Ban. I am told Mr. Gambari reported upon his return that the generals were "genuinely surprised" the outside world was outraged at reports of atrocities — which they tried so hard to quash. Soon, however, they got over their surprise. With Mr. Gambari advising more openness toward Ms. Suu Kyi, they made an awkward gesture, offering to start talking to the imprisoned democratically elected leader. But to do that, they said, Ms. Suu Kyi would have to agree unilaterally to conditions that included putting an end to her drive for Burmese democracy — or, as the generals defined it, "obstructive measures" — and dropping her support for international sanctions against the junta.

Mr. Gambari is an amiable, soft-spoken, decent man who has spent many years at the United Nations, where the notion that some regimes are unredeemable is sneered at. Before joining the world body, Mr. Gambari served as the Nigerian ambassador to the United Nations, at a time when one of Africa's most vicious dictators, Sani Abacha, ruled the country.

He did it for Nigeria, not for Abacha, Mr. Gambari once told me. But did accommodating Abacha and explaining his ways to the world at the United Nations help prolong the dictator's reign in Nigeria? That question must be weighed when America and its allies address the crisis in Burma. Mr. Gambari, to his credit, made an important statement Friday after addressing the Security Council. "We can't go back to the situation before the recent crisis," he told reporters, and said he would return to Burma in November, or even earlier. Given the country's history of rule by brutal force, it is highly unlikely that anything but a return to the status quo is possible as long as the military regime remains in power.

Now the council is considering a statement that would call on the junta to launch "an inclusive process of genuine reconciliation, dialogue, and democratization." That's like asking me and other Yankee fans to root for the Red Sox to win the World Series. We just can't.