Middle East Diplomacy Will Fail

UNITED NATIONS — No matter how hard Secretary of State Rice tries, or Rep. Nancy Pelosi pushes, serious diplomatic solutions are not feasible in the current Middle East. So instead of hopping on the bandwagon, Secretary-General Ban should concentrate on necessary personnel changes that may one day render the United Nations relevant.

Did Mr. Ban display a new attitude last week during his maiden trip to the Middle East? Were his statements different from those of his predecessors? Can he keep his diplomacy coordinated with other would-be peacemakers, such as Ms. Rice, her European counterparts, or Saudi diplomats?

All are interesting questions, but rather than the what, let's look at the who. The contract of the U.N. point man on Israel and the Palestinian Arab-controlled territories for the last two years, Alvaro de Soto, is due to expire next month, and it is unlikely to be renewed. Who will replace him?

So far, Mr. Ban has failed to rid himself of the old timers whose actions ensure that U.N. secretaries-general are the world's top diplomats only in their own minds. One glaring exception is the revolutionary appointment of an American, Lynn Pascoe, to lead the powerful political department. Mr. Pascoe is vigorously consolidating his powers and may change some U.N. old-think for the better.

Mr. Ban pleased his listeners at the Arab League summit last week by trotting out some timeworn clichés. The top issue for most of them, he said, is the "wound that is still fresh, even after 40 years": Israel's occupation of "Arab territory" and the denial of statehood to the Palestinian Arabs.

But then, in an unusual move for a U.N. secretary-general addressing Arab kings, emirs, and rulers for life, Mr. Ban subtly added one item: "Alongside the political conflicts that plague the region are the deep yearnings of people for freedom, opportunity, and human development." Whether Mr. Ban will reiterate this challenge to Arab sensibilities or even place it at the top of the list of regional problems, where it belongs, remains to be seen.

During a visit to Lebanon, Mr. Ban also reportedly told security officials there that their Israeli counterparts have produced evidence of arms smuggling to Hezbollah, in violation of U.N. Security Council resolution 1701, including pictures of trucks crossing to Lebanon from Syria and unloading weapons.

The mere act of considering Israeli intelligence reliable evidence — and doing so in an Arab capital — is heresy in traditional Turtle Bay thinking. No matter how convincing Israeli arguments are, they are usually seen as nothing but one side of an equation. No matter how absurd the other side's arguments are, they always carry at least equal weight.

A Peruvian-born U.N. traditionalist whom Kofi Annan appointed, Mr. de Soto initially warned Mr. Ban against being seen as too close to a Bush administration, "which will be out of office in two years." Instead, he advised Mr. Ban to rely on European Middle East diplomacy. Now Mr. de Soto has "indicated his desire to move on," a U.N. spokesman, Farhan Haq, told me yesterday, adding that it is too early to discuss who will replace him.

When I asked Israeli officials last week for their impression of Mr. Ban, the answer was almost uniform: "He is a nice change from Kofi, but the U.N. is still irrelevant." Official statements from Mr. de Soto, as well as those of his counterpart in Lebanon and from U.N. organs such as the Human Rights Council, have rendered Turtle Bay useless to Israel.

All of a sudden, the Saudis' awkward, stiff diplomacy is being hailed worldwide as a "breakthrough." Once the Passover vacation in Israel is over next week, Ms. Rice will return for another mission to discuss it. In reality, however, the rush of foreign diplomats to the region is based more on the political needs in European capitals and in Washington than on current conditions in the region.

Pushing for substantive negotiations between a politically wounded Israeli government and a thuggish Palestinian Arab leadership at war with itself is a fool's errand. And as a spokeswoman for Mr. Olmert, Miri Eisin, said yesterday, "By openly backing terror all around the Middle East," President Assad of Syria "is not a partner for negotiations," regardless of Ms. Pelosi's diplomatic skills.

More cooks never improve the broth. Mr. Ban should stay out of the current flurry of peacemaking and instead redouble his efforts to bring new blood to Turtle Bay. Mostly, he should avoid reappointing any more of Mr. Annan's old cronies.