War With Iran Could Force the ‘Silent To Act'

JERUSALEM — A military strike against Iran could empower that country's democratic forces.

So says a retired general who headed Israel's military intelligence research division, Yossi Cooperwasser. An attack on Iran "may cause people in Iran who today are silent to act," General Cooperwasser, who spoke alongside other authorities on Israel during a visit of Western journalists to Israel sponsored by the American Israel Education Fund, said. "If the situation changes and the world intervenes forcibly, they might go to the state and say, ‘What are you doing?'"

General Cooperwasser's remarks by no means reflected the consensus of the group. Some officials expressed optimism about the recent Saudi overture to Israel — which might, in theory, help to isolate Iran — while others voiced hope about the prospects for success of economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

The threat from Iran comes at a time of relatively tranquility for Israel, where suicide bombings have decreased by 95% since the erection of a barrier between the Jewish state and the West Bank.

Still, General Cooperwasser painted a bleak picture of Iran's progress toward a nuclear bomb. "We are not far away from the point they begin producing uranium for the bomb," he said. "It is a matter of weeks, if not a month."

Differences of opinion within the Iranian regime could result in the cessation of the nuclear program, he said, citing Iran's recent return of 15 captured British sailors as an example. "There's debate within Iran over a nuclear weapon," he said. "Not all of them want to see Iran bombed."

The deputy director of the Institute of National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, Ephraim Kam, called a potential Israeli air campaign against Iran "very complicated," noting Iran is 800 miles from Israel and sites related to its nuclear program are "well-protected."

Mr. Kam said an Iranian bomb would be "a threat to the existence of the state of Israel." "It will be the first time in our history an enemy country will be unafraid to bomb Israel," he said.

While he downplayed the probability of an immediate Iranian attack on Israel after the nuclear program is completed, he suggested that the Islamic Republic would use its threat to put constant pressure on Israel and the West. But Mr. Kam disputed the notion that an Iranian bomb would usher in a Cold War-style dynamic in the Middle East, saying, "This is not like the United States and the U.S.S.R."

Both a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry and an Israeli government official said the primary focus right now should be on diplomatic efforts. A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mark Regev, said an Iranian bomb "will energize Islamic extremism from Morocco to Indonesia" and represented "the only real existential threat to Israel."

He pointed to a diplomatic solution. "Can you contain the enemy? Can you put them in a box? Can you prevent them from developing nuclear weapons?" he asked rhetorically. Touching upon the recent Saudi overture and other developments, he said: "More and more people in the Arab world say it's in their interest to have a modus vivendi with Israel. The Iranian thing is forcing people to deal with this sooner than they want to."

The Israeli minister of housing, Meir Shetreet, downplayed the prospects of an Israeli attack on Iran. "I don't think Israel should be the one to take on Iran," he said. "This is a threat against the Western world."

Despite the group's lack of agreement on the potential for an Israeli-backed military effort against Iran, there appeared to be a sense that once such an attack took place, even if it were not launched by Israel, the Jewish state would inevitably become involved.

At Sderot, less than a mile from the Israeli border with Gaza, Israeli army sources say the Iranian presence is increasing in the Palestinian Arab-controlled area — and that Iran is a source of training for Palestinian Arab terrorists, as well as funding for social welfare.

Near the Israeli border with Lebanon, a spokesman for the Israeli army, Major Manny Socolovsky, said Israel captured 24 Iranians during the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon last summer, and that Hezbollah's rocket emplacements demonstrated a high level of sophistication.