GOP Strategists Keeping a Close Eye on Obama's Exploratory Bid

Never mind the primaries — Republican strategists are keeping a close eye on the just-announced presidential exploratory bid of Barack Obama, and already trying to figure out how they might deal with a general election campaign against the Illinois senator.

The early buzz from campaign planners on the Republican side ranges from admiration and recognition of genuine political talent to a mild panic about the chances of success against him.

"The enormous reaction to Obama tells you that somebody who is completely from the outside of the political class can capture a great deal of attention and affection overnight," said one veteran Republican campaign guru. "The country clearly wants to turn the page."

In the "mild panic" camp, one veteran Republican campaign manager currently unaffiliated with any 2008 contenders lamented, "If Obama gets the nomination, the Republicans are totally [expletive]d… If it comes down to McCain vs. Obama, I'm voting for Obama. He's unbeatable. He's the next RFK."

Within moments of Obama's announcement yesterday, Republicans were circulating two statements from Obama on Iraq that seemed to contradict each other — a sign that they may try to revive the "flip-flopper" charge that proved so effective against Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

How much should a potential candidate be thinking about a general election opponent, one year away? The professional campaigners differ on that question.

"To draw a sports analogy, any baseball manager who worries about a World Series pitching matchup before they have won the pennant is making a very serious mistake," said the press secretary for Governor Romney's exploratory committee, Kevin Madden. "The matchups and head-to-head competition in campaigns tend to arrive via their own volition, and that is usually because you have done your job of successfully introducing a candidate and their ideas to the electorate. Once there are two nominees standing, the contrasts can then be drawn and the real hand-to-hand combat begins."

A specialist in Internet communications for the exploratory committee of Senator McCain, Patrick Hynes, said that in his experience there are three types of primary campaign styles. He emphasized he was speaking based on past races, not on the current approach of Mr. McCain's team. "First, you've got frontrunner candidates or those with a reasonable expectation of remaining a candidate in the general election. These kinds of campaigns keep close watch on the potential nominees from the other party, without, of course, ignoring the competition in their own primary. The other two campaign styles are insurgent campaigns and message campaigns. Insurgents ignore the general election and spend their time tearing down the frontrunner from their own party; they'll worry about the general election when the time comes. Message campaigns focus on a single issue or a single cluster of issues and will often attack frontrunners from both parties based on the virtues of those issues."

A strategist with Sterling Corporation, currently working with the Romney campaign, Fred Wszolek, indicated that there is some value in keeping an eye on the opposing party, even a year away from the Iowa caucuses.

"At this stage of the campaign everyone is paying attention to what everyone else is doing on the other side of the aisle."