Ron Paul Can't Buy Respect

Rep. Ron Paul's stunning fundraising prowess may or may not buy him a ticket out of New Hampshire, but there's no sign the Republican presidential candidate has managed to buy any respect from the Washington establishment. Asked for advice on how Dr. Paul could convert his millions to votes, several prominent political consultants and analysts said, in essence, he can't.

"Ron Paul's only option is to buy as many flat screen TVs as he can, put 'Ron Paul' bumper stickers on them, and hand them out to voters in New Hampshire," the manager of Robert Dole's 1996 presidential campaign, Scott Reed, said. "I just don't see where he goes. … He will probably be the only presidential candidate ever to have a surplus when he drops out, because he has an incredible amount of money and no campaign strategy to win."

"I don't think Ron Paul is a serious candidate who will make any significant difference," a political newsletter publisher, Charles Cook, said. "Money or no money, I don't think Paul will be a factor and don't waste time thinking about him."

"I'd tell him to go buy a home in the Bahamas," another top pundit, Stuart Rothenberg, joked.

However, Mr. Rothenberg added that questions about how Dr. Paul could win in New Hampshire or elsewhere might be missing the point. "If the goal is to further the libertarian message, then he should probably spend it nationally and not in Iowa or New Hampshire," the analyst said.

Dr. Paul, who has languished between 4% and 8% in opinion polls, is drawing attention for reeling in unheard-of amounts of money through one-day online fund-raisers. The first such event last month raised $4.2 million. Another held on Sunday raised $6 million. As of last night, Dr. Paul's campaign reported it had raised almost $18.5 million in the fourth quarter, a figure almost certain to outstrip any other candidate, Republican or Democrat.

"These dollar numbers are just staggering. Poor McCain's people must just die when they see that," Mr. Reed said, referring to the financially strapped campaign of one of Dr. Paul's rivals for the Republican nomination, Senator McCain of Arizona

Dr. Paul's campaign did not respond to questions yesterday about any plans for the newly raised funds. However, they have said previously that they would produce new television ads and hire additional staffers in states like California and Florida.

Analysts were dubious that would help Dr. Paul's numbers rise. "The problem with Ron Paul is he doesn't fit his party," Mr. Rothenberg said. "He's barking up the wrong tree," Mr. Reed added. Unlike all the major Republican candidates, Dr. Paul, 72, opposed the Iraq War and the Patriot Act. However, the congressman, who represents the Galveston, Tex., area, also favors abolishing all foreign aid and most of the federal government. He speaks with sincerity about shrinking the government to its size in the early 20th century, doing away with Medicare, Social Security, NASA, and a host of other popular government programs that he contends are unauthorized by the Constitution.

Only one analyst contacted by The New York Sun saw a possibility Dr. Paul could break out of the bottom of the presidential pack. A New Hampshire talk-show host and occasional Democratic candidate, Arnie Arnesen, said the key for the libertarian hopeful could lie in her state's policy allowing same-day voter registration.

"Ron Paul's supporters are like missionaries. They do a much better job converting people," she said. "It could shock some people because they can come across noses where other people are not even looking at those noses."

The first state to pick candidates, Iowa, also allows previously unregistered voters to join in the caucus process. However, attending a caucus can take an hour or two and requires extensive social interaction, while casting a primary ballot, as New Hampshire voters do, usually takes only a few minutes. Ms. Arnesen said Dr. Paul's operation needs to use some of its riches to buy databases listing people who never or rarely vote and trying to get them to endorse the candidates' anti-war, smash-the-system message. "If they can raise $6 million in a day, they can figure this out. This is not rocket science," she said. Ms. Arnesen said the key question will be how many of the tens of thousands of online donors to Dr. Paul are willing to come out of the woodwork. "It's swiping your credit card. It still doesn't translate into moving people in the critical states," she said. "If he can translate the typing into mano-a-mano, he can do well."