Bloomberg's Electoral Calculus
States rich in electoral votes, such as New York, California, and Florida, could be Mayor Bloomberg's for the taking if he jumps into the presidential race next year as an independent candidate, political professionals say.
Mr. Bloomberg, a billionaire who could run a self-financed campaign unlike any the country has ever seen, also has the ability to do well in the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast, and in moderate states in the Midwest, especially around the Great Lakes, the analysts said.
Douglas Bailey, a former Republican strategist who co-founded Unity08, an organization dedicated to creating a bipartisan presidential ticket, said between 35% and 40% of the country's voters label themselves as independent, and another 8% to 10% of voters say they are willing to vote for candidates outside their party.
RELATED: Map Showing the Mayor's Chances by State (jpeg)
"In the country as a whole, and in virtually every state, there is upwards of 55% of the electorate that is available," he said.
Those voters wouldn't necessarily support Mr. Bloomberg or another moderate candidate, he said, "but they are going to be open to persuasion, and that is more true in a three-way race."
He added: "I don't believe that there is any state that is out of play."
Although he says he is not a candidate for president, speculation that Mr. Bloomberg will make a bid for the White House in 2008 is rampant. It is fueled by his aides, his national policy agenda, his declarations of frustration about gridlock in Washington, and a travel schedule that takes him across the country and overseas.
A breakfast meeting last Friday with Senator Obama that drew a horde of gawking photographers to a New York diner added fuel to the smoldering presidential fire.
A senior adviser to the mayor, Daniel Doctoroff, said last night on NY1 that he wished Mr. Bloomberg would run for the White House. Mr. Doctoroff announced yesterday that he is leaving his post as deputy mayor to become president of Bloomberg LP.
"I think he would be a fabulous president," he said, according to a transcript of the interview. "I think sometimes we don't appreciate — or maybe we do — about how rare the kind of leadership that he's providing is."
Mr. Bloomberg's independent streak could help him win support from citizens who consider themselves independent voters even if they are registered as Democrats or Republicans. The mayor was a longtime Democrat who became a Republican before running for mayor in 2001 and left the Republican Party in June.
To win the presidency a candidate needs 270 electoral votes — a majority of the Electoral College. If no one wins a majority, the House of Representatives is charged with electing a president from among the three candidates who receive the most electoral votes, with each state delegation casting one vote.
A professor of public policy at Baruch College, Douglas Muzzio, said Mr. Bloomberg's best chances lie in states that traditionally vote for Democratic presidential candidates and have big press and broadcast markets or are near New York.
He said that even Illinois, the home state of Senator Obama, could be in play for the mayor, because Mr. Bloomberg, a multibillionaire, could afford to drown out his opponents' messages with a television and radio advertisement blitz in the expensive market.
A look at another independent billionaire's presidential run provides insight into Mr. Bloomberg's chances. Ross Perot, a Texas businessman, garnered 18.9% of the popular vote in the 1992 presidential election and at one point led President Clinton and President George H.W. Bush in national polls.
In June 1992, a Time-CNN poll showed Mr. Perot leading his opponents by 13 points.
Although Mr. Perot failed to win any electoral votes, he made competitive showings in several states. In Maine, a state famous for its independent streak, he narrowly bested Mr. Bush with 30% of the vote, and he won 28% of the vote in Alaska.
A political consultant who worked on Mr. Clinton's re-election campaign in 1995, Henry Sheinkopf, said states where ballot initiatives and referendums are used would be good bets for the mayor, because voters there are accustomed to looking outside party lines when casting ballots.
Mr. Sheinkopf emphasized that he was talking about Mr. Bloomberg's chances at winning electoral votes only in the abstract.
"It's impossible to predict what is going to happen because we've never had a Bloomberg before," he said. "I'm one of the guys at the beginning who said, 'Don't count this guy out.' The problem is, we don't know what the state of play is."
Mr. Bloomberg's vast personal wealth has the potential to upend traditional political campaigns that rely on fund-raising to stay afloat. Mr. Bloomberg's chief political adviser, Kevin Sheekey, told Newsweek recently that Mr. Bloomberg would run a billion-dollar campaign.
He said Mr. Bloomberg would decide whether to run for president after March 4, the day of the Texas primary, according to a November cover story in the magazine.
The director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, Larry Sabato, said he wouldn't put a dollar on Mr. Bloomberg as a presidential candidate, but added that he knows he shouldn't rule anyone out.
"It's not impossible for an independent to win," he said. "It is difficult for an independent to win."
