Murder, Rape Numbers Mar Positive Crime Statistics

Six months into the year, crime in the city is down 2.98% versus the same period last year, but the overall numbers mask a grim increase in murders and sexual assaults.

The number of murders in the city has climbed 8.2% since the same time last year, with 19 more people killed than in 2007. Overall, 250 people have been killed so far this year, versus 231 in 2007.

The number of rapes citywide has gone up 9.3% in that time, including a 32.2% increase in the last month compared with the same one-month period last year. Overall, 700 rapes have been reported this year versus 640 in the first six months of 2007.

The increase in rapes has been concentrated most intensely in northern Manhattan, where the number of sexual assault complaints has risen to 115 in 2008 from 81 during the first half of 2007, a jump of 41.9%. The numbers in that area have been driven in part by a surge of reported incidents during the last month, with 20 cases of rape between June 1 and June 29, versus three in 2007 during the same time period.

Among other major categories of crime, the number of reported incidents is generally declining, leading to an overall decrease in crime citywide. Burglaries are down by 8.8% versus the same point in 2007 and assaults are 6% lower than last year. Grand larceny cases have dropped 1.4%, while the number of reported car thefts has declined by 7.8%. Robberies have increased 4.4%.

It is unclear whether the increases in homicides and sexual assaults are statistical aberrations or represent a larger trend. The city's murder rate, while consistently trending downward during the last decade, has fluctuated at times from year to year. In 2006, for example, murders increased by 10.5% versus 2005, to 596 from 539. The next year they plummeted 17%, to 496, the lowest number in modern city history. Some experts suggested at the time that the city could be approaching the least amount of murders achievable, as only a small number of murderers were strangers to their victims. Murders carried out by people who already have a relationship with their victims are considered more difficult to prevent through police action.

The number of murders is down 17.7% since 2001, while the number of rapes has declined by 21.8% in that same period.