The 15% Scenario

In the season of peace on Earth and goodwill to men, politics in Iowa is getting ugly.

The sniping between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is becoming more heated, although his advantage over her appears to be solidifying. John Edwards's comportment as a partisan firebrand is a far cry from his upbeat and positive campaign style in 2004. Polling suggests the winner will be one of these three candidates, all of whom are consistently garnering the support of more than 20% of those queried.

Yet the unique dynamics of Iowa's caucus creates space for one of the three second-tier candidates—Senator Biden, Senator Dodd, or Governor Richardson — to shake up the race.

In 2004, negative television advertising dominated the lead-up to the Democratic caucuses in Iowa. House Minority Leader Gephardt of neighboring Missouri, was the early favorite in the race, until Governor Dean of Vermont caught fire in Iowa.

As the weeks leading to the caucuses approached Messrs. Dean and Gephardt directed their fire on each other in what became known to political operatives as the "murder-suicide pact."

Each candidate was able to successfully destroy the other but they also destroyed themselves. By caucus day, weary Iowa voters were eager to look elsewhere and selected Senator Kerry as their choice.

Unlike a traditional vote, where every ballot counts, candidates who fail to receive the support of 15% of those present at a caucus hall are deemed unviable; if only 14 people show up at a caucus with 100 participants present for a given candidate, those voters are up for grabs. A second headcount then takes place.

A secondary candidate can decide to boost another politician or bury a rival by suggesting their supporters go elsewhere. Again, four years ago, Messrs. Kerry and Edwards ended up splitting up the support from Mr. Gephardt's backers. Mr. Edwards, in particular, was a popular second choice thanks to his sunny demeanor, a quality he has ventured from this election cycle.

A number of scenarios exist as to where the Iowa caucus hall machinations will lead. Both Messrs. Richardson and Dodd are plausible beneficiaries. The secondary candidate around whom the most convincing theories are organized is Mr. Biden. On Sunday, the mayor of Keokuk, David Gudgel, endorsed Mr. Biden, joining 14 members of the state legislature, who have formally endorsed him. Mr. Gudgel's rationale reflected the Delaware senator's greatest strength, his knowledge of international affairs. "One of the main reasons I decided to support Senator Biden was his grasp of foreign policy and the problems we face internationally," Mr. Gudgel said in a statement the campaign distributed. It's easy to imagine a sequence of events where voters get to make a second-choice and select a candidate who is a safe choice during a time of war and international foment.

There is, of course, another set-up under which Mr. Biden or another second-tier candidate can benefit. And it goes to expectations. If it begins to look as if one of the top three candidates realizes they will not win Iowa, they may look to generate an outcome that robs their opponent of reaping the benefits of a victory. Say, for example, Senator Clinton's poll numbers suggest that she will lose the caucuses, it's possible that she could throw the remainder of her supporters to Mr. Biden or another candidate so as to create any story distracting from a victory for Mr. Obama.

Given that Mrs. Clinton is such a large public personality and is the spouse of an even larger public personality, it's unlikely that any story could distract from her losing Iowa. Still, it's not out of the question that they might try to create one.

The endorsement of the Des Moines Register this Sunday may help insulate Mrs. Clinton's advisers from having to concoct doomsday scenarios. But she or another candidate could still be the beneficiary of support from secondary candidates who fail to capture 15% of caucus participants.

While the campaigns of Messrs. Biden, Dodd, or Richardson declined to return calls asking them to address 15% scenarios, each one has it within their power to be either a potential kingmaker or king depending on how the vagaries of the caucuses turn out. It may hinge in which administration — Clinton, Obama, or Edwards — each man wants to serve.

Mr. Gitell (gitell.com) is a contributing editor of The New York Sun.