Power of the Baby Boomers
Don't trust anybody under 50.
That could well be the mantra of the powerful political generation of the baby boomers.
They entered public life insisting, "don't trust anyone over 30."
Life has played a funny trick on the boomers. They blazed a frenzied path onto the world's stage. Their youth fueled a host of cultural and political touchstones that now represent history: Woodstock, the March on Washington, the Summer of Love. Now age has inevitably caught up, but not without its consequences.
With the exit from the stage of the World War II generation, the people who confronted the Great Depression and drove Nazism and Fascism into the dustbin of world history, the boomers stand poised to become the most influential group of senior citizens simply by their growing number.
The AARP, which represents Americans over the age of 50, already boasts 38 million members, and has its sight set on more. The group has launched a "Divided We Fall" campaign aimed at recruiting new members and energizing existing ones. According to the group's Web site, the effort will "amplify the voices of millions of Americans … who believe that health care and financial security are the most pressing issues for our nation here at home."
The boomers' status as a numerous and powerful clique of those over-50 has a resurgent muscle — their political axiom holds that the elderly vote. Older voters tend to be more engaged, more informed, and more apt to vote than younger voters. Just as investment companies have responded to the boomers' new aging prospects by designing ad campaigns around the 1960s, such as Fidelity's "This is Paul" campaign organized around the former Beatle, Mr. McCartney, it's likely that we will see presidential candidates following suit in chasing their votes. Similar to most elderly generations, boomers have an interest in traditional economic issues, such as health care and social security.
There will, however, be a difference in the boomer generation. The phenomenon of all these aging persons ushers in a new political demographic, that is, the anti-war senior. They took to the streets in the 1960s and early 1970s to protest the war in Vietnam and to challenge the establishment. They brought America the epidemic of student takeovers of campuses across the country. In 1968, the energized New Left drove President Johnson out of the election and never warmed to the Democratic nominee, Vice President Humphrey. Instead they got Richard Nixon, who, along with Henry Kissinger, became objects of boomer-hatred for eons.
Not all boomers, of course, are or were on the left. Some were largely apolitical. Others started left and moved toward the right over time. For a healthy portion, the juxtaposition of an unpopular war and newfound free time could mean a return to the political activism of their youth. A CNN poll last month found that anti-war sentiment was growing most quickly among Americans over the age of 50 and was 10 percentage points higher than those under 50.
It's possible that members of this growing demographic will put their gray hair into ponytails, break out their Birkenstocks, and head to a summer of protests. More likely to happen is for activism to take place online and at polling places. The candidate most likely to benefit from the power of the boomers will be Senator Obama. His liberal ideology draped in non-ideological language appeals to those who view themselves as post-political but still "engaged."
The 2008 Democratic primary could unfold as a replay of the election held 40 years ago. If so, Senator Clinton could be in an odd position. Today, she is the figure of the Democratic establishment, the same spot Hubert Humphrey was in 40 years ago when he was vilified by young voters. This time, though, the agitators will be over 50.
Mr. Gitell (gitell.com) is a contributing editor of The New York Sun.
