Triangulating Huckabee
Though neither was intimately involved in the Iowa caucuses, both Mayors Giuliani and Bloomberg had a lot riding on the results. Who won, and, just as importantly, who lost, are indicators of whether either New York mayor can make it to the White House come the November election. So how did last night's results affect their chances?
Mr. Giuliani was notionally part of the Republican race, though he barely took part, a fact reflected in his minimal showing in the final verdict. His strategic decision to avoid taking part in the caucuses in Iowa, concentrating instead on the big state primary in Florida, where he hopes to pick up support from the millions of New Yorkers who have retired there, was always a gamble. Thus far it appears to be paying off.
Mayor Giuliani's gambit — a ruse never before attempted by a presidential hopeful — depends on the Republican field being splintered and confused by the end of the month, when he can appear like a knight on a white charger as a unifying candidate who can beat the Democratic choice.
As Mitt Romney, backed by his personal fortune, came to emerge as the frontrunner in early campaigning in both Iowa and New Hampshire, with the prospect of winning the momentum that would make him unstoppable before Mr. Giuliani entered the race proper, it became the mayor's top priority to stop him in his tracks.
Michael Huckabee's victory over Mr. Romney last night is therefore the best news for Mr. Giuliani. As the former Arkansas governor has not so far been doing well in New Hampshire, where Mr. Romney has continued to prosper, Mr. Giuliani will be doubly pleased.
New Hampshire now becomes a three way race between Mr. Huckabee, spurred by his win in Iowa, the now damaged Mr. Romney, and Senator McCain, who is enjoying a burgeoning revival in the Granite State and who, latest polls suggest, is the favorite to win there. The fact that Mr. McCain tied for third place in Iowa, with his old friend Fred Thompson, will also cause Mr. Giuliani to smile. So far, at least, his long shot gamble of taking the GOP candidacy with his unconventional big state gambit may pay off.
Mayor Bloomberg can also take satisfaction from the Iowa results. The Bloomberg strategy is to wait until after the 23-state primary on February 5 in the hope that the choice of extreme or inexperienced Republican and Democratic candidates will give him a chance as a middle way third party candidate. Mr. Bloomberg, too, has viewed Mr. Romney as a dangerous rival, a plausible candidate who could steal a great deal of his centrist ground. The failure of the Massachusetts governor to win Iowa also makes him likely to lose New Hampshire, which is also good news for Mr. Bloomberg.
The rise of Governor Huckabee is even better news for Mr. Bloomberg, who needs to win New York and the north eastern states if he is going to counter coolness to at least some elements of his platform among southern and rural voters. The prospect of Mr. Huckabee enjoying a runaway candidacy would fit nicely into Mr. Bloomberg's game plan, for it will give the Republicans a less than assured national candidate and would ditch the chances of Mr. Giuliani, leaving New York up for grabs.
Just as important for Mr. Bloomberg's presidential ambitions is Senator Clinton's defeat in the Democratic race in Iowa. In the general election, Mrs. Clinton, too, threatened to do well in her home state of New York. Compared to last night's winner, the untried and untested Barack Obama, and to John Edwards, who offers a radical populist agenda along European democratic socialist lines, Mrs. Clinton could be made to appear centrist and challenge Mayor Bloomberg's selling proposition.
Mrs. Clinton's defeat at the hands of Democratic and Independent voters last night is undoubtedly heartening for the mayor. Although she is not yet out for the count, her road to the candidacy is blocked by a charismatic and popular young upstart. Her candidacy, once so assured, is slipping. She still has enormous funds with which to fight back, but if she is to recover she may have to slug it out in a succession of tough and bruising battles with the youthful pretender from Illinois.
So, who did better out of last night's Iowa upsets? Mayor Giuliani can afford to be optimistic, but there is still a long way to go before he is in the clear. The rise of Mr. Huckabee, and the resurgence of Mr. McCain, coincides with a decline in his own national support. If either or both of his Republican rivals continue to do well in the primaries leading up to Florida, Mr. Giuliani may find himself shut out of the race.
For Mayor Bloomberg, however, the race is going well. If he were to extrapolate last night's results, at the beginning of February he will face Messrs. Huckabee and Obama, both candidates capable of losing in November, both lacking the sort of experience one gets from building a business into a multi-billion dollar world leader and from governing the complexities of New York City. However much Mr. Bloomberg may deny he is going to run, he is left in a good position to come through the middle between two inexperienced rivals.
nwapshott@nysun.com
