Analysts Advise Against Waiting for Real Estate Price Cuts

Buyers who have stayed on the sidelines, expecting to scoop up apartments at bargain prices, may be waiting in vain, real estate experts say. Price cuts are a last resort for developers, and come only after all other options — including paying a buyer's taxes and lawyer fees — are exhausted.

"A price cut at a new development is the kiss of death," the developer of such projects as Sheffield 57 and 25 Broad Street, Kent Swig, told a room full of brokers during a recent speech at the Real Estate Academy. Cutting prices "angers people who already bought at higher prices and indicates to buyers that things are not perfect," he said later in an interview.

"Price is part of the marketing strategy," a real estate appraiser, Jonathan Miller, said. "You don't want to send a message that the building isn't being absorbed. ... Instead, you offer seller concessions."

Rather than looking at prices, Mr. Miller suggests that buyers look at the spread between a building's listing and sale prices, an indicator known as the listing discount. In the fourth quarter of 2007, the average listing discount in Manhattan was 2.7%, a 0.1% increase from the same period in 2006. In the fourth quarter of 1996, as the real-estate economy was emerging from more troubled times, the discount was 7.5%.

"It basically means negotiability," Mr. Miller said. The numbers do not yet reflect a big change in the discount for Manhattan, but Mr. Miller said he expects to see the spread widen over the next few quarters.

Another indicator of market health is sales volume, with a downward slide in sales often a precursor to building owners offering more incentives to buyers. So far, Manhattan has remained fairly stable, while Brooklyn is seeing less activity, Mr. Miller said.

Developments may still cut prices, however, he said. Many new buildings, especially in neighborhoods in boroughs outside Manhattan, are owned by first-time developers who cannot wait for the right buyer. They need to pay back loans, construction costs, and real-estate taxes in short order, and sometimes the only option is to try to increase activity by reducing prices.

"A price cut is usually very intentional as a marketing move," the director of development marketing at Halstead, Stephen Kliegerman, said. "It means you need to advertise, to pull in people from a target demographic."

According to the Web site Street-Easy.com, about a dozen new and recently converted buildings in neighborhoods such as Williamsburg and Yorkville cut prices by as much as 10%. Of the buildings that reduced prices over the last month, half were in Manhattan, including the Omni at 206 E. 96th St. in the Yorkville section of Manhattan, which slashed prices on nine of 11 listings by as much as 8.7%, and 123 Baxter St. in Chinatown, which slashed a penthouse by 8.5% to $4.99 million and a one-bedroom by 5.6% to $1.22 million. A director of sales for both buildings, Stephen McArdle of Sedona Realty Group, said the developer lowered prices to speed up sales so that it could begin new projects.

Two of the buildings where prices were cut are in the Williamsburg section of Brooklyn. The Metropolitan at 349 Metropolitan Ave. reduced prices on all of its listings by as much as 9%, and Northpoint Towers at 76-84 Engert Ave. cut three listings by as much as 5.6%. Representatives for the buildings did not return calls for comment.

Even if price cuts do start to take place on a large scale, "we wouldn't see it for a while," the chief economist at Terra Holdings, Gregory Heym, said. "One thing I'd say is don't try to time markets. You're not going to do it right."