All Three Locals Begin Cup Chase

For the first time in 13 years, all three local teams (the Rangers, Devils, and Islanders) will be participating in the NHL playoffs. The last time it happened, the Rangers trounced the Islanders in a lopsided first-round series and then beat the Devils in a memorable seven-game Eastern Conference Finals series before moving on to break a 54-year drought and win the Stanley Cup.

A lot has changed during those 13 years, most notably the NHL's imposition of a salary cap. Today, parity reigns supreme, and although the top-seeded Buffalo Sabres are the clear favorite to emerge from the Eastern Conference, all three locals (yes, even the Islanders) actually have a solid chance to hoist the Cup this June. For one thing that hasn't changed is that goaltending is the primary deciding factor in postseason success, and the Rangers, Devils, and Islanders are all blessed on that front.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS (2) vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTING (7)

FORWARDS It's true that Vincent Lecavalier tlantic and Martin St. Louis have been two of the NHL's most dominant offensive performers this season, but Devils checkers John Madden and Jay Pandolfo should be more than up to the task of neutralizing Tampa's top players. Unless Brad Richards rediscovers his Conn Smythe Trophywinning form, the Lightning will have fits trying to beat Martin Brodeur. Meanwhile, though their offense was quite pedestrian during the regular season, the Devils actually have some pretty dangerous firepower of their own. Look for the famed "EGG" line (Patrik Elias, Scott Gomez, and Brian Gionta) to be reunited, and for key contributions to also come from the highly underrated second line (Zach Parise, Travis Zajac, and Jamie Langenbrunner).
Advantage: Devils

DEFENSE Without Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermayer, the Devils' defense is certainly less fearsome than it was during their Cup-winning years of 1995, 2000, and 2003. But New Jersey's defense still swarms, with talented puckmovers Brian Rafalski and Paul Martin complemented nicely by hard-hitters Colin White and Richard Matvichuk, who made a successful return to the lineup on Sunday after missing the first 81 games. For Tampa, power play quarterback Dan Boyle is one of the game's most underappreciated performers; consistently one of the NHL's highest-scoring defensemen, Boyle's own-zone play has improved dramatically in recent seasons. Also providing valuable support are Paul Ranger and Filip Kuba.
Advantage: Devils

GOALTENDING The key to this series, without question, is goaltending. The Devils boast one of the NHL's all-time greats in Brodeur, while the Lightning's netminding has been shoddy at best throughout most of the regular season. Unless Marc Denis, Johan Holmqvist, or rookie Kari Ramo delivers an otherworldly performance, Brodeur will be all the difference the Devils need to prevail easily in this series.
Advantage: Devils

SPECIAL TEAMS Though the Lightning 's power play (ninth best, 18.4%) would appear to be far better than the Devils' (16th best, 17.7%), while in truth the Lightning scored only four more goals with the man advantage (and were given seven more opportunities). Where these teams truly differ is when they're on the wrong side of power plays. The Lightning were the league's third worst at killing off penalties (78.4%), while the Devils — led by Madden, Pandolfo, and Brodeur — were the NHL's fourth best (85.2%), giving New Jersey a critical edge.
Advantage: Devils

COACHING Back in 2004, Lightning head coach John Tortorella was considered one of the game's brightest young minds. But his tendency to toss his goaltenders under the bus — and his inability to extract a consistently high effort level from his club — will hamper him severely against the Devils. Of course, New Jersey's coaching situation isn't without controversy of its own. GM Lou Lamoriello made a surprising decision last week to fire head coach Claude Julien and take over the reins. But there's little reason to doubt whether the Devils will deliver a strong effort for Lamoriello, and he has what it takes to out-coach Tortorella if it comes down to that.
Advantage: Devils

SUMMARY Look for Brodeur and company to come away with a relatively easy victory over a Lightning team that's become but a shadow of the one that won the Cup in 2004.
Prediction: Devils in four.

NEW YORK RANGERS (6) vs. ATLANTA THRASHERS (3)

FORWARDS Both teams boast tremendous talent on their top lines, which alone should make this a compelling series. For the Thrashers, the offense comes from Marian Hossa, Ilya Kovalchuk, Slava Kozlov, and trade deadline acquisition Keith Tkachuk. Though his stay on Broadway was an unmitigated disaster, Thrashers forward Bobby Holik remains a very capable checking center. Meanwhile, the Rangers count on Jaromir Jagr, Brendan Shanahan, Michael Nylander, and Martin Straka. But the biggest key for the Rangers has been Sean Avery, who sparked the Blueshirts to a 17–84 record following his arrival on February 6.
Advantage: Even

DEFENSE Over the course of the past four seasons, Rangers rearguard Marek Malik has piled up a ludicrous plus-115, this despite the fact that he's often matched up against the opposition's top forwards. Yet, Malik doesn't receive much love and appreciation from the Garden faithful. Go figure. Also contributing mightily has been the similarly underrated Michal Rozsival, who has quietly emerged as a very competent two-way defenseman. On the Thrashers' side, deadline acquisition Alexei Zhitnik has worked out even better than expected, providing steady two-way play and quarterbacking the power play effectively. With 14 points in 18 games for Atlanta, he has become their most important defenseman. The Rangers' edge here is slim, but meaningful.
Advantage: Rangers

GOALTENDING Last season, Henrik Lundqvist appeared to be poised to accomplish the unthinkable, first backstopping Team Sweden to the Olympic gold medal and then the Rangers to the Stanley Cup. But Lundqvist and the Rangers never recovered from the post-Olympic hangover. Despite looking like the NHL's best team for much of the regular season, the Blueshirts stumbled into the postseason only to get swept by the Devils. This year, Lundqvist's trajectory has been far more favorable; he's improved with each passing month. Meanwhile, Thrashers netminder Kari Lehtonen combined four excellent months with two poor ones. If he can get on a hot streak, the Thrashers will be fearsome.
Advantage: Rangers

SPECIAL TEAMS Marian Hossa might well be the most dangerous special teams player in the entire NHL. Not only did he score 44 points with the man advantage, but he also led the Thrashers with three shorthanded goals. However, the Thrashers' success with the man advantage was surprisingly mediocre (16.5%, 23rd best in the NHL) considering their tremendous offensive talents. The Rangers, on the other hand, saw their power play improve as the season wore on, largely because Jaromir Jagr's now-healed shoulder is enabling him to shoot the puck with renewed effectiveness. If the Blueshirts' power play clicks, the Thrashers will be in serious trouble; their 79.8% penaltykilling effectiveness (26th best in the league) will be their Achilles' heel.
Advantage: Rangers

COACHING Tom Renney has demonstrated unwavering loyalty toward his players, and it began to pay off as the season progressed. If he can manage to keep Jagr motivated, the Rangers should advance. But if this series comes down to line matchups and lategame strategy, Bob Hartley — who coached the Avalanche to the Stanley Cup in 2001 and to the Western Conference Finals in four consecutive seasons — holds the edge.
Advantage: Thrashers

SUMMARY The Blueshirts were one of the NHL's best teams in the season's final months and are primed to pull off a first-round upset, especially if Jaromir Jagr is ready to deliver an elite-level performance.
Prediction: Rangers in six.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS (8) vs. BUFFALO SABRES (1)

FORWARDS Trade deadline acquisition Ryan Smyth has played well, tallying 15 points in his first 18 games for the Isles. But the key to the success of this trade is whether Smyth can step up his play in the postseason, and whether the Isles will get strong performances from enigmatic talents Alexei Yashin, Miroslav Satan, and Viktor Kozlov. The Sabres, on the other hand, boast perhaps the most talented corps of forwards in the entire NHL. Speedy and skillful, Buffalo's offense will prove incredibly difficult for the Isles to contain. From sophomore Thomas Vanek to veterans Maxim Afinogenov, Daniel Briere, and Chris Drury, the Sabres' advantage here is severe. Advantage: Sabres

DEFENSE The off-season addition of Jaroslav Spacek helped, but the key for the Sabres' blue line corps is to remain healthy. Last spring, the Sabres fell to the Hurricanes in the Conference Finals while four of their top six defensemen were sidelined with injuries. If the Sabres' defense can remain relatively intact through the postseason grind, it'll significantly increase their chances of representing the East in the Cup Finals. The Isles' defense is far more seasoned, boasting an excellent combination of talented puck-movers (Marc-Andre Bergeron, Tom Poti, Chris Campoli) and hard hitters (Brendan Witt and Sean Hill).
Advantage: Islanders

GOALTENDING With Wade Dubielewicz between the pipes — though he has played well in Rick DiPietro's absence — the Isles are a giant step behind the Sabres here. Buffalo netminder Ryan Miller is quickly becoming one of the NHL's finest puck-stoppers, and he can be expected to outplay Dubielewicz by a substantial margin. But if Miller and the Sabres stumble early — and Rick DiPietro makes a triumphant return — the advantage could quickly shift to the Isles.
Advantage: Sabres

SPECIAL TEAMS The Islanders have been one of the league's mostpenalized teams all season long and aren't particularly effective at killing penalties, an ugly postseason combination. Though Buffalo hasn't been particularly devastating with the power play during the regular season, their success rate will go up considerably now that Maxim Afinogenov and Tim Connolly have returned to the lineup. On the other side of the ledger, the Isles' power play has improved dramatically following the midseason arrivals of Bergeron and Smyth, while the Sabres' penalty killing isn't particularly stifling. The Sabres' advantage here isn't as large as it seemingly should be.
Advantage: Sabres

COACHING Isles head coach Ted Nolan previously worked for the Sabres, and he won the Jack Adams Trophy before getting unceremoniously dumped following the 1996–97 season. Nolan has done an excellent job on the Island this year, helping to get the Isles back on track and into the postseason. But in Ruff, Nolan will certainly meet his match. Without question a serious contender for the Jack Adams this year, Ruff has coached his club through a litany of injuries and managed to keep them at or near the top of the league standings all season long.
Advantage: Even

SUMMARY Now healthy and firing on all cylinders for the first time in months, look for the Sabres — the NHL's fastest club — to outplay the overmatched Isles and emerge victorious.
Prediction: Sabres in five.

Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.