The Bettor's Box

Horse Racing

By MAX WATMAN
May 2, 2008

Those of you who have followed our coverage in this paper over the years will remember that I engage in what some might call frivolous handicapping contests against children and forces of nature. Two years ago, I put my handicapping savvy to the test against a 4-year-old neighbor. When the final counts were tallied, I was up 50 cents, and she was in ruin, down $33.25. Last year, before each of the Triple Crown races, I rolled up slips of paper with the runners' names on them and tossed them out my second-story office window in the direction of an appropriate commemorative glass. Frankly, I assumed, and many agreed, that simply throwing paper balls at a glass would be a more successful strategy for picking winners than professional analysis. Again, when the tickets were cashed and the windows were closed, I was up $12 and Sir Isaac Newton was down $41.

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Ed Reinke / AP

Eight Belles may be the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby since Winning Colors in 1988.

Handicapping is a rough art, a hack science, and I have assumed throughout that if you asked your cat who would win the Derby you'd be better off than me. This year, let's keep it closer to home. My son West is almost 21/2 years old, he's watched a lot of horse racing, and I figure it's about time he learned to gamble.

I laid out the past performances on the floor, read him all the names and told him things about the horses (what color they are, that they are big and fast) until he lost interest and I asked him to point.

He chose with such confidence that I almost reconsidered my own choices. That's not how it works, of course, he'll stick to his and I'll stick to mine. We'll each put $10 down to win, place, and show, and we'll count it up at the end of the Triple Crown.

West's Choices:

Win: Cool Coal Man
Place: Court Vision
Show: Colonel John

Max's Choices:

Win: Eight Belles

The last time I chose a filly was Rags to Riches in the Belmont. Do I have a soft spot for the ladies? Her races this year are at least as exciting as Big Brown's, but she's won more races this year than Big Brown has ever run. Watch her at the top of the stretch turn, it'll take your breath away.

Place: Gayego

He has push-button speed, tractability, and heart. He also has that push-button tractability that serves a horse so well in this race.

Show: Visionaire

I don't know what happened in the fog at the Gotham, but I think he passed every horse in the field. He was also gaining ground in the Blue Grass while everyone else was going to sleep.