Can Jocketty Turn Reds Into a Winner?

When Cincinnati hired longtime St. Louis Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty in January, and gave him the ominous title of special adviser to owner Bob Castellini, it could not have been clearer that Jocketty would be the next man to run the Reds. The firing of incumbent GM Wayne Krivsky, announced yesterday, was a formality and a technical exercise; the man lost his job four months ago.

Jocketty, 56, is one of the more impressive operators in the sport. In 13 years with St. Louis, he won seven division titles, two pennants, and a World Series, largely because of a series of astounding trades and signings that netted him such players as Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Will Clark, and Chris Carpenter for, essentially, nothing at all. For 14 years before that he worked for the Oakland A's, and was one of the key architects of the Bash Brothers teams of the late '80s and early '90s, and of baseball's modern scouting and development infrastructure in the Dominican Republic. No one brings such a man on without intentions of letting him hold whatever job he wants, and no one with such a résumé wants any job that doesn't involve taking full control of baseball operations.

The shame of the thing is that Krivsky is no chump. His signature move was probably trading outfielder Austin Kearns and shortstop Felipe López to Washington for two fairly generic relievers two years ago — I believe I am the only person in America, possibly including Krivsky, who thought the move was defensible — but he also picked up tons of talent for nothing. He snagged Jeff Keppinger and Brandon Phillips, two quality middle infielders, for a stale doughnut. He stole no. 2 starter Brandon Arroyo for perennially disappointing outfielder Wily Mo Peña. He snatched Josh Hamilton, who hadn't played organized baseball in years, in the Rule V draft, and swapped him at the probable height of his value for top pitching prospect Edinson Volquez.

Most of what makes Cincinnati an interesting team is its young talent, players such as pitcher Johnny Cueto, first baseman Joey Votto, and outfielder Jay Bruce, the best hitting prospect in the sport, with whom Krivsky had little to do. But the reason it's a functional and well-rounded baseball team is the eye Krivksy's had for second-line talent. The Mets would be well served to hire the man, and listen to him.

Function and well-roundedness aside, though, the Reds were 9-12 at the time of Krivksy's firing, and while their mediocre start may only have served as a semi-plausible pretext for the inevitable, his team wasn't winning and didn't seem likely to do so. Jocketty's task will be to form a coherent, championship-level team out of a lot of talent that hasn't played up to its potential. I don't like his odds of doing so.

The basic facts of the case are this. Cincinnati has a lot of young talent; in addition to the above-named talents, third baseman Edwin Encarnación and starter Homer Bailey are especially impressive. It also has a lot of older talent. Some of it is good. Arroyo and Aaron Harang are a perfectly credible pair of top starters, for instance, and pricey Francisco Cordero, while he may have had only two save chances this year, is absolutely a championship-caliber closer. Much of it, though, is no good at all. Ken Griffey Jr. is a legend in the sport, but is nearly useless given his defensive ineptitude, and Adam Dunn is as bad as a player who annually hits 40 home runs and walks 100 times can possibly be.

Manager Dusty Baker, who's always been best at getting the most out of talented veterans and worst at getting anything at all out of younger players, is a spectacularly bad fit for this team. So, one suspects, might Jocketty be. In Oakland and St. Louis, partnered with manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, his specialty was nabbing undervalued veteran stars with personality or health issues in exchange for useless prospects, and in surrounding true superstar players such as Albert Pujols and Dennis Eckersely with viable supporting casts. The Reds, though, are in a position where they need to get rid of overvalued veteran stars for strong prospects, and provide a championship-level supporting cast with the kind of franchise talent that makes the difference between an interesting team and a good one.

Suspicion, though, is not indictment, and Jocketty has been succeeding in baseball since I was 2 years old. To write him off as a bad fit for his circumstances might well be to gravely underestimate him. The Reds have the makings of either a team that's never quite as good as it should be, or an annual pennant winner. Given their payroll constraints and the odd fit between a strong talent base and a strong leadership that don't quite seem to line up, I'd bet on them being the former. There's no doubt at all, though, that they could be the latter; and if they are, Jocketty will rightly take the credit.