Denver Gets Another Shot At Team It Can Never Beat
If you've been waiting for the right weekend to hit your favorite sports bar, wait no longer. NFL fans will want to be near multiple television sets to watch Sunday's best games, all scheduled for the late afternoon.
BUCCANEERS (2–1) at PANTHERS (2–1) Sunday, 4:05pm
The NFC South has been the most volatile division in football over the past few seasons, and this year is no exception. The big story is the collapse of the New Orleans Saints, but the resurgence of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is just as surprising. New quarterback Jeff Garcia is efficiently running an offense similar to those he ran in Philadelphia and San Francisco, and younger faces have the Bucs defense playing at a high level once again.
The Panthers beat Atlanta, the Bucs beat New Orleans, and both teams won big over St. Louis. That means that these rivals have the same record and the same need to prove themselves with a win over a quality opponent.
Another similarity is that both Tampa Bay and Carolina have one standout wide receiver who dominates the offense: Joey Galloway in Tampa and Steve Smith in Carolina. Both teams also tend to struggle covering the other team's no. 1 receiver, so this game could be high-scoring even though both teams are known for defense.
The biggest question going into this game is who will be throwing to Smith. Carolina starter Jake Delhomme is listed as day-to-day after hurting his elbow in last week's win over the Falcons. Former Houston starter David Carr may replace him — and given Delhomme's struggles last year, many Panthers fans would argue that this change would not be a downgrade.
SEAHAWKS (2–1) at 49ERS (2–1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Like the Panthers and Bucs, these division rivals are both 2–1, but they didn't get there the same way. The Seahawks had two convincing wins and lost a close battle with Arizona on a last-minute field goal. On the other hand, the Niners won their first two games even though, according to DVOA — which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent — they were outplayed by their opponents. So it wasn't such a surprise when the Pittsburgh Steelers stomped them 37–16 last week.
The biggest problem for San Francisco is that third-year quarterback Alex Smith has significantly regressed without the guidance of former offensive coordinator Norv Turner (now head coach in San Diego). Smith is completing just 52% of his passes for a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt. Since they aren't afraid of Smith, defenses load the line to stop superstar running back Frank Gore, which is why he has also started slow (3.4 yards a carry).
On defense, however, San Francisco's free-agent signings are clearly paying dividends, especially cornerback Nate Clements. So far this year, the 49ers are the league's best team against opposing no. 1 receivers. Unfortunately, they're having trouble stopping everything else, which is a problem against a quarterback like Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck, who spreads the ball around to multiple options.
Last year, the 49ers shocked the Seahawks by sweeping the season series. But since Seattle's clear weakness is their secondary, the 49ers won't be able to repeat the accomplishment unless Smith can snap out of his early-season funk.
BRONCOS (2–1) at COLTS (3–0)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
For years, the competition between the AFC's top teams had followed a simple pattern of rock-paper-scissors. Indianapolis always beats Denver, Denver always beats New England, and New England always beats Indianapolis.
The Colts have flipped the script on the Patriots in their recent meetings, but the Broncos haven't been able to do the same against the Colts. When Peyton Manning lit up the Denver defense in the 2003 playoffs, the Broncos went out and traded for Champ Bailey, the best cornerback in the league. The next two times these teams played, Manning simply avoided Bailey and racked up yards picking on the Broncos' other cornerbacks.
Now, Denver has not one but two All-Pro corners, Bailey and trade acquisition Dre' Bly. Will that stop Manning? No, he'll subject the Broncos to death by Dallas Clark. In last year's playoffs, New England could take away Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne on the outside, but their older cornerbacks and inexperienced safeties could not cover Clark, the Indianapolis tight end. Last week, Houston also concentrated on covering Harrison and Wayne, and Manning just threw to Clark and rookie slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez. Staying away from the two corners will be even easier if veteran safety John Lynch is unable to play due to a groin injury suffered last week
If the Broncos can't slow down Manning, they'll have to outscore him. After watching the Saints struggle for three weeks, it is clear that Indianapolis' Week 1 dominance was not the great achievement that it seemed to be at the time, and both the Texans and Titans had some offensive success against the Colts over the last two weeks. Nonetheless, the Colts won both those games, and both were on the road, not at home. The Denver running game has always been able to gain yardage against the Colts, but that won't help if the Colts build a large lead early.
Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOut siders.com.
