Empty Seats Threaten NBA's Future in New Orleans

At first glance, the New Orleans Hornets seem like a huge success story. After being forced to play in Oklahoma City the past two seasons thanks to the ravages of Hurricane Katrina, the Hornets came back this season and have set the league on fire. Racing out to a 9–4 start despite a difficult early schedule and featuring one of the league's most exciting young players in point guard Chris Paul, the Hornets have the whole town buzzing.

Or rather, they would have the town buzzing … if anyone was coming to the games.

The Hornets have drawn a league-worst 11,092 fans per game this season through six home contests, falling well short of the 19,000 capacity at the New Orleans Arena. On Monday night, facing a showdown against an equally hot Orlando team — both came into the game with 9–2 records — the Hornets could only get a piddling 11,741 to show up. They haven't sold out any games this year, nor have they come close — not even when the world champion Spurs came to town.

Keep in mind that the NBA was a tough sell in the Big Easy even before Katrina hit. Despite the league's lowest ticket prices, the Hornets ranked only 19th in attendance in their first season in the Big Easy, when excitement over a new team was highest and they had a playoff team, and dead last in the second. The latter mark can perhaps be excused — the team went 18–64 and had a fire sale of its best players at mid-season — but nonetheless didn't set a good omen.

Estimates say as much as a third of New Orleans's population relocated in the aftermath of the hurricane, and many of those who stayed have fallen on harder times while they try to rebuild their houses, businesses, and lives. Obviously, that translates into less fans with less money.

Thus, with every successive disappointing attendance figure, the question is raised anew: Why exactly did the league decide to come back here?

The first answer is that the league feels it's the right thing to do: David Stern has talked passionately about the importance of coming back to the city. From that perspective, the NBA made a commitment to the Big Easy when it moved its Charlotte franchise here, and it wants to do the right thing and help the city get back on its feet.

A better answer might be a mix of marketing and politics. Long-term, pretty much everyone understands that this isn't a viable market for the league. But NBA Commissioner David Stern doesn't want to be the bad guy who yanked the Hornets out from under the poor, suffering people of New Orleans — his league has enough black eyes already. Perhaps, from that view, it's better to spend a couple years making it perfectly obvious the city can't support a team and then pulling up stakes.

The politics come in because the Hornets' owner is George Shinn, a man who already had burned his bridges in Charlotte when the city essentially decided not to build a new stadium because they didn't like him (the expansion Bobcats got it instead). The last thing Stern wants is for Shinn to go hopping from market to market burning up viable relocation locales; instead, he'd rather see Shinn try to stick it out in New Orleans, especially since keeping his relocation locale of choice open (Oklahoma City) can be used as a hammer to get other cities to build new arenas on the taxpayers' dime.

Stern backed it up by offering all manner of inducements to New Orleans and, indirectly, Shinn — reportedly leaning on corporate partners to help out the Hornets, awarding the 2008 All-Star Game to the city, and trumpeting the league's return to the city whenever possible.

All this probably looked good on paper when the season started. The theory was that between the state subsidies, a boost from the league, and the excitement over their return, the Hornets would draw enough fans and make enough money to scrape by for a couple years, and the league would get credit for helping contribute to the rebuilding of the city. If and when the team did finally leave, nobody would blame them.

But if the Hornets keep playing to half-full arenas, this simply can't work. And this is with a good team, mind you — could you imagine what would happen if they went 18–64 again?

Who knows, maybe things will pick up. LSU's regular season ends tomorrow and the Saints are falling out of the playoff race, so folks in the Big Easy will need something to occupy their minds for a while. On the other hand, it's not like they're desperate for other options — for instance, the January 25 game against the Clippers competes against five Mardi Gras parades. Good luck with that one.

What we do know is that the attendance situation in New Orleans is even worse than anyone expected, and if it doesn't get any better the league is going to have to revisit its plan for basketball in the city. While the intentions of both Stern and Shinn have been honorable, perhaps its time to wave the white flag and admit that both the team and the city are better served by moving on.

jhollinger@nysun.com