Foggy BCS Picture Will Be Clearer After Saturday

With four of the top 10 teams in the current Bowl Championship Series standings largely untested until this week, this could end up being the pivotal weekend of the entire college football season. Saturday, top-ranked Ohio State (at Penn State), no. 4 Arizona State (vs. Cal), and no. 9 Kansas (at Texas A&M) all face their toughest competition yet. Here's a look at the key games (all rankings BCS), including a pair of once-beaten teams still in contention for the BCS title game:

No. 7 WEST VIRGINIA (6–1, 1–1 Big East) At RUTGERS (5–2, 2–1)
Saturday, 12 p.m., ABC

While Connecticut remains the only unbeaten team in Big East conference play, nobody anticipates the Huskies to be standing at season's end. Instead, the conference champion is expected to come from the group that includes West Virginia, South Florida, and Rutgers. After stumbling in back-to-back home losses earlier in the year, the Scarlet Knights again control their own destiny to get to the BCS after upsetting USF last week but cannot afford another conference loss. West Virginia, which lost at USF in its Big East opener, is thinking more than just the conference title. If things break right for the Mountaineers, they could end up in the national title game as an at-large team should both they and South Florida win out.

West Virginia kept Rutgers out of the BCS last season with a triple-overtime win at home. Rutgers quarterback Mike Teel enjoyed his breakout moment as a passer in that game, but his health is in question this week after he aggravated a thumb injury against USF. Teel is promising to play, and Rutgers' chances of pulling off the upset probably depend on his effectiveness. As great as tailback Ray Rice has been, he can't carry Rutgers if the offense is one-dimensional against West Virginia.

Rutgers coach Greg Schiano went deep into the playbook for a pair of trick plays in the USF win. This week may feature a more conventional approach. Rutgers needs the balance that Teel provides to keep the West Virginia safeties off the line of scrimmage and give Rice a chance to eat up yardage and time of possession on the ground. Defensively, Rutgers must maintain lane discipline to contain quarterback Pat White and tailback Steve Slaton, both of whom can turn one missed gap by a defender into a long scoring run.

No. 12 USC (6–1, 3–1 Pac-10) At No. 5 OREGON (6–1, 3–1)
Saturday, 3 p.m., MSG

USC, an overwhelming favorite to reach the national championship game this preseason, may have broken out of a three-game funk just in time. The Trojans got well on the medicine known as Notre Dame in a 38–0 road win last week, but will play in a much more hostile environment — and against a far more dangerous opponent — when they visit Oregon Saturday.

The Ducks are second in line (behind no. 3 LSU) among the one-loss teams hoping to qualify for the BCS championship in New Orleans on January 7, and can boost their standing in the human polls with an impressive win over USC in the rare afternoon Pac-10 tilt that much of the nation will see.

Oregon is second in the nation in total offense at nearly 551 yards per game, but has only a pedestrian defense. If USC is clicking offensively, the Ducks will have to win this one in a shootout led by dual-threat quarterback Dennis Dixon, who is fourth in the nation in passing efficiency and 11th in total offense. Expect a heavy dose of tailback Jonathan Stewart, who had a career-best 252 yards in a win over Washington last week. For USC, coach Pete Carroll is waiting until the last minute to name a starting quarterback. John David Booty began the year on most Heisman watch lists but struggled badly in the Trojans' shocking loss to Stanford and has missed the past two games with a broken finger. His replacement, Mark Sanchez, tossed four touchdown passes against the Irish last week. With games remaining against Cal and Arizona State, USC can still get back in the championship race, but the Trojans cannot stub their toe against Oregon.

No. 1 OHIO STATE (8–0, 4–0 Big Ten) At No. 25 PENN STATE (6–2, 3–2)
Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC

No team has benefited more from this season's bevy of upsets than Ohio State. In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, the Buckeyes have simply taken care of business against a soft schedule while everyone around them has faltered. Suddenly, with their offense coming together to complement the nation's top-ranked defense, Ohio State is in prime position to return to the title game if it can survive a season-closing stretch that includes Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. Penn State has had an up-and-down year, having lost to both Michigan and Illinois on the road, but the Nittany Lions are a much better team at home, where they destroyed Wisconsin two weeks ago. They will also have the backing of a raucous "whiteout" crowd in a night game at Beaver Stadium.

Penn State's pass rush is critical to the Lions having a chance at the upset. Ohio State quarterback Todd Boeckman thrives off having time to scan the field from the pocket, so defensive end Maurice Evans (second in the nation with 10.5 sacks) must make life uncomfortable for him.

Offensively, the story for Penn State is the same as it has been all year: Quarterback Anthony Morelli must avoid bad decisions and take care of the football against the smothering Ohio State defense.

Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.