For Once, Federer Finds Himself Chasing Roddick

SHANGHAI, China — Tomorrow, tennis fans will see something old (Andy Roddick versus Roger Federer for the 16th time in their careers) and something new (a match that means a lot more to Federer than it does to Roddick). Yesterday, Roddick became the first man to qualify for the Tennis Masters Cup semifinals with a 6–1, 6–4 demolition of Fernando Gonzalez, who played brilliantly against Federer on Monday, and as poorly as possible against Roddick. The Chilean dropped the first five games and didn't get a whiff during Roddick's service games — he didn't even produce a break point. Roddick lost only 11 points on his serve and made 10 errors to Gonzalez's 21. The match lasted an hour and five minutes. I'd guess the two players spent about a quarter of that time, at most, hitting tennis balls, and the rest drinking water, waiting for ball boys and girls, sitting in their chairs, and pacing while fans took too long to find their seats. Roddick's post-match offering to the crowd — he threw balls into the upper reaches of the stadium — was more impressive than anything he did with his racquet (not surprisingly, Roddick has a rifle arm — C.C. Sabathia, look out).

Because of his victory over Nikolay Davydenko on Monday, Roddick now has a free shot at Federer. If he loses, he still plays in the semifinals on Saturday, and perhaps has another chance against Federer on Sunday. If he wins, Federer is most likely out of contention. I won't trouble you with the complex elimination scheme, but the simplified version is this: If Federer wins, he reaches the semifinals. If he loses, he might still survive depending on the outcome of the Davydenko–Gonzalez match tomorrow.

What a relief this should be for Roddick. Because of his status as the best tennis player in America, and because of his abysmal record against Federer (1–15 with 10 straight losses), Roddick can't play the world's no. 1 without enduring endless questions about Federer's greatness, whether he'll ever win a match, and why a great effort and his best tennis are never enough. At the Australian Open in January, expectations were high when Roddick took one on the chin (he won six games in three sets in the semifinals). At the U.S. Open, expectations were a lot lower when Roddick showed that he can play Federer evenly when he is at his best (all the more frustrating, then, that he didn't win a set). At the Masters Cup last year, Roddick couldn't convert match point. The list goes on and on, through the whole of Europe, Asia, Australia, Canada, and Federer's hometown of Basel, Switzerland. Grass, hard courts, indoors, outdoors, night, day, sun, clouds, warm, cold — you name it. Federer wins.

The problem for Roddick in these contests is always the same: He doesn't match up well against Federer (no one does, but Roddick really, really doesn't). Federer is the best in the business at reading serves and blocking them back, oftentimes softly, over the net. A player with a lot of groundstroke firepower, someone like Gonzalez, can take those returns and punish them, and he can also take a few cuts at Federer's serve. Roddick doesn't have Gonzalez's booming forehand, so Federer gets away with slices and chips. Roddick doesn't return serve particularly well and he doesn't run like Rafael Nadal, either. If he did, he might be able to out-defend Federer in rallies. While Roddick's volleys are much better these days, they aren't consistent or sharp enough to keep Federer from passing him. If ever there was a player perfectly designed to lose to Federer, it's Roddick.

We are speaking of absolutes here: Roddick's best against Federer's. Roddick isn't going to win that contest, but what's odd is that he has never happened upon a day when he plays well and Federer doesn't. Fifteen matches is no small sample — Roddick is certainly due for some luck. Could tomorrow be that day? So far during this tournament, Federer is far from his best. While that could change at a moment's notice, Federer seems sufficiently out of sync for one to think that he won't be absolutely dazzling.

And what if Federer does a number on Roddick again? The U.S. Open title isn't on the line this time and there's no hoard of American reporters waiting to bludgeon Roddick with questions about how great Federer is, how great Roddick isn't, and, "Oh by the way, how did it feel to have your butt kicked again?" Any different from the other 14? Did we mention you haven't beaten this guy since the summer of 2003? I'm not about to feel sorry for a 25-year-old who earns millions of dollars a year by hitting a ball over a net. But it is painful to watch this exercise, especially since you can never question Roddick's effort, say what you will about his strokes or his touch at net.

Roddick may not have the prettiest game in the world, but he likes his chances against anyone — anyone — on tour except Federer. His combined record against the other six men in this year's tournament is an impressive 17–9. One of these days, he's going to surprise Federer. Maybe, just maybe, he'll do it tomorrow. The role reversal — Roddick as cat and Federer as mouse — should give Roddick a lift. For once, Federer is chasing him, and that has to feel pretty good.

Mr. Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis magazine. He can be reached at tperrotta@nysun.com.