The Horses Are at the Gate ...
1 SEDGEFIELD
TRAINER JOCKEY MORNING LINE ODDS
Darrin Miller Julien Leparoux 50–1
Well, he's run on grass, and he won once there, and he's run on polytrack, and he won once there, and his last win was a 40K allowance four races back, yeah, that sounds like Derby to me. Wait, does sarcasm come through on newsprint?
2 CURLIN
Steve Asmussen Robby Albarado 7–2
Curlin's maiden at Gulfstream was eye popping. He took control of that race right out of the box and owned it all the way through. He sprinted to the lead, despite a hard hold from rider Rafael Bejarano. Around the turn, he was running in the middle of the racetrack, sauntering really. And then he kind of lunged ahead, opening up daylight between himself and the field. From that race on, he has dominated. Combined margin of victory: 28 lengths. No races as a 2-year-old and only 3 starts make it hard to believe he'll take it, but every time I watch the replays he looks special.
3 ZANJERO
Steve Asmussen Shaun Bridgmohan 30–1
Under the radar, this horse has managed to get into money in every start this year, each of them serious races. I can't see him on top, but he's got heart, and it's easy to see him increasing the value of the trifecta.
4 STORM IN MAY
William Kaplan Juan Leyva 30–1
Thirteen starts worth of experience, which will serve him well, and he's been on the board all but one. On the other hand, he doesn't seem very fast, and there's no pattern to his races. Is he a sprinter? A turf horse? A closer? Does that mean he's flexible and tractable or that he's waffly and opportunistic rather than talented? That, my friends, is why it's called gambling.
5 IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY
William Kaplan Mark Guidry 50–1
I see nothing that qualifies this horse to run in the Kentucky Derby.
6 COWTOWN CAT
Todd Pletcher Fernando Jara 20–1
I don't know what to think of his wire-to-wire victory in the Illinois Derby. There was a horse with him on the pace, but there was no pressure, as the fractional times attest. After that horse folded, nothing chased him. He's won more often than not, but against what? If there were a stronger pattern in the way he runs, I'd have more faith.
7 STREET SENSE
Carl Nafzger Calvin Borel 4–1
The one. There is a long-standing tradition that the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile doesn't come back to win the Derby. However, typically the Breeders' Cup is not at Churchill Downs, and typically the winner doesn't shut that race down by opening up 10 lengths. His loss at the Blue Grass last time out on April 14 does nothing but encourage me. He's not tired from it, and besides, it was on polytrack, it was a very slow race, there was a lot of bumping on the stretch, and he lost a four-way photo finish by a nose.
8 HARD SPUN
J. Larry Jones Mario Pino 15–1
I wouldn't go so far as to say that Hard Spun is my wiseguy pick, only because I don't like that he hasn't raced since March 24, and he doesn't have a lot of graded stakes experience — but that kind of thinking is so 20th century. This is the age of polytrack, the age of the Barbaro-size layoff. The knock is that he seems to have lost the Southwest because he didn't like the traffic and couldn't get his spot up front, so he failed to fire and close the deal despite having won a position from which to go. Traffic fear doesn't do you any good Saturday when the first run past the grandstand is a horrible mosh pit. Did he learn to rate and pace in the Lanes End? These colts get smarter every day. That's the bet.
9 LIQUIDITY
Doug O'Neill David Flores 30–1
A pretty heavily touted horse as the favorite in the Sham, his 3-year-old debut back on February 3, and coming out of that race, he looked like he'd run a game second after having the lead on the stretch in one of the real thrillers of the season. But from there on, it seems the bloom is off the rose. He faded in the Louisiana Derby, and he lost his advantage at the Santa Anita Derby. Forget it, he's through.
10 TEUFLESBERG
Jamie Sanders Stewart Elliott 30–1
That slow pace in the Blue Grass I mentioned above was caused by Teuflesberg, who led them through fractions as if he were giving pony rides at the Dutchess County Fair and then somehow managed to lose. If you can fool a field into following you at that pace, thereby reserving strength, you should be able to take it at the end. After all, you're already in front. He's a strange kind of horse: He's run a lot of races, and he's even won a few of them. He's got a lot of experience in graded stakes, and yet I'm not sure why. He's an outclassed plodder, but at the same time, he always seems to figure into the money one way or another — he's 7 for 15 on the board.
11 BWANA BULL
Jerry Hollendorfer Javier Castellano 50–1
Among the big dreams of horse owners and trainers everywhere, there is the following pattern: The horse starts off green and promising, and improves with every start. Switches start to flip, and he wins his maiden looking strong. Taking a chance against better horses, the horse takes the prize. There's a spot in a stakes race that looks right for him, and he takes it. He's looking really good. The owners and the trainer get together ... maybe we ought to take him to the show? They tried Bwana Bull at the Santa Anita Derby. The horse made no bid for the win. The question is: Was he green in stakes company, and he needed a race in deep company? Or have they hit the ceiling with Bwana Bull?
12 NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
Barclay Tagg Cornelio Velasquez 8–1
Won the Wood Memorial on April 7 in a determined, amazing drive. He'd been right up on the pace and had it left to dig down and put Any Given Saturday away, and then resist the late charge of Sightseeing. He'll have to step up the pace to get on the board, but since he's never been worse than third (and that only once) it's fair to say he will.
13 SAM P.
Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez 20–1
He has an unearned reputation as a stalker — he's lost as many stalking as he's won, and he's won up on the front, too. On paper, he looks like a horse trying to win. Will he get up there Saturday? There's a lot of horses to get by, and a lot of horses here have finished in front of him before, but still, I wouldn't count him out.
14 SCAT DADDY
Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 10–1
A very serious contender with a lot of hard won trophies. Here's the knock: He won the Fountain of Youth on March 3 by a nose, and he had to go all out to keep his length and quarter at the Florida Derby. But he got the nose, and he kept the 1 1 / 4 , which is what's most important. If there were really fast horses here, he wouldn't have a chance, but among this crop, he's strong.
15 TIAGO
John Shirreffs Mike Smith 15–1
He broke his maiden through a disqualification, which doesn't feel right, and rallied to win the Santa Anita Derby at long odds after flopping like a fish in the Robert B. Lewis on March 3. That said, the horse was 15 lengths off the lead with a quarter-mile left to run in the Santa Anita Derby, having avoided all traffic and pressure. Mike Smith weaved him between horses and he popped up on the inside to grab the trophy. That's exactly what Smith did with Giacomo two years ago (which is exactly what the race call was at Santa Anita: "just like Giacomo!"). Something to think about.
16 CIRCULAR QUAY
Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 8–1
One of the major players as 2-year-old, he got it handed to him at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, losing to Street Sense by 10 lengths. Then, in his debut in the incredibly weird Risen Star in New Orleans (at the first call, the combined odds of the horses in first three positions was 189–1), Slew's Tizzy clipped heels at the quarter pole and lost his rider in very tight going, and Circular had to avoid the falling jockey. Last out in the Lousiana Derby on March 7, he ran a flawless race to win by 2 1 /4. If he can take eight weeks off and do that again, he'll be wearing roses. But then again, eight weeks?
17 STORMELLO
William Currin Kent Desormeaux 30–1
Much was expected from this one. First came the hard-fought, hard-lost duel against Scat Daddy in Florida on March 3, and then came a fade after setting the pace in the Florida Derby. He seems tired and outclassed to me, as if he misses those California breezes. Even if he returned to his best form, it wouldn't put him under the wire in front.
18 ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
Todd Pletcher Garrett Gomez 12–1
Back in the Sam Davis on February 17, the race call was "very workmanlike" as this one put the field away on the stretch, which doesn't sound nice but is something to look for in a 3-year-old debut. You hope it's followed up with pizzazz, which was what you got when he ran next in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 17. He hooked up with Street Sense on the stretch, after using the same laying-in-waitjust-off-the-pace strategy. They went after each other, and Street Sense got the nod. But then came the Wood, and when things didn't set up for him, he didn't have the juice to get past the three early leaders and didn't have the guts to tuck in behind them. The line on his past performance says he was "caught outside," but he had every opportunity and ran more or less the same race we've seen him run this year, but with stronger horses to get by at the end. I'm not sure he can handle this, but he's never been out of the money.
19 DOMINICAN
Darrin Miller Rafael Bejarano 12–1
He's won three races, all of them at Keeneland, which used to be irrelevant because it was a speed-favoring track with a weird surface, and now is irrelevant because it's a polytrack.
20 GREAT HUNTER
Doug O'Neill Corey Nakatani 15–1
A strong California horse with plenty of graded stakes experience, Great Hunter was once heavily touted. The gamble is that he'll match his 3-year old debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, the only performance that justifies him as a Derby contender. He may very well pull it off, but one race does not a pattern make.
BETTORS' BOX
Regular readers of The New York Sun will remember that last year I put my handicapping skills to the test against my 4-year-old neighbor, and solidly trounced her. This year, the Derby is even harder to wrap one's head around — Polytrack! Layoffs! Curlin! — and I've decided to appeal to a higher power: gravity.
I placed an official commemorative Kentucky Derby glass (not some mail order thing, either; I've slurped julep out of this one) on my lawn and threw wadded-up pieces of paper out of my second-story office window. The ones closest to the glass are Sir Isaac's picks. (There was some local discussion about whether or not I should hurl the names one at a time, but we decided that all the horses in the Derby come out of the gate at once, and that's part of the sport.)
We sang, we tottered, and we tossed. It was a photo finish. Well, a yardstick finish. And Any Given Saturday got the nod.
SIR ISAAC'S PICKS:
WIN: Any Given Saturday
PLACE: Imawildandcrazyguy
SHOW: Bwana Bulll
It was a close race, and for all you gambling nuts, Curlin rounded out the superfecta.
WATMAN'S PICKS:
There is no real early speed in the Derby this year — there are horses that like to run out front, but can you really use the word "speed" in connection with Teuflesberg? — and I don't think early pace will be a deciding factor. There are a lot of horses I like in here, but each seems to come with a knock: Hard Spun, for instance. What's with the layoff? Why no Blue Grass? There's no good answer. There are three horses I keep coming back to:
WIN: Street Sense. He's just a monster. He's beaten a lot of these horses on the same course. His tremendous win in the Breeders' Cup (against many of the same runners) was off of a race at Keeneland which he didn't win (just like this time). He's working like a machine. I think he blows them away. I have spent a lot of time trying to avoid picking the favorites, and there's a lot of other horses to like in this race, but Street Sense shines, and 4–1 ain't so bad.
PLACE: Nobiz Like Shobiz. His run at the Wood Memorial was professional; the blinkers were a huge help. He's 4 for 6, and he's done it only in top company. If something happens to Street Sense — he stumbles or has to check in traffic — Nobiz Like Shobiz will fill that breach.
SHOW: Scat Daddy. His Florida races were excellent, and he's beaten my other pick, Shobiz, twice.
So say me and Sir Isaac have three $10 bets — win, place, and show — on our picks. We'll tally them up at the end of the Triple Crown.
