Lakers the Front-Runners in the Kidd Sweepstakes

Now we can stop wondering.

With Jason Kidd saying he's ready to move on and his recent play certainly seeming to back up his words, it's finally that time we've been discussing for over a year — the time when Rod Thorn says uncle and blows this thing up.

He'll be starting things off with a bang, as Jason Kidd is officially on the market. The Nets will take phone calls from interested parties between now and the trade deadline as they try to make the best deal they can given the circumstances. Preferably, they'll get the deal done sooner rather than later to remove Kidd from the locker room as quickly as possible — remember those halcyon days when we talked about Kidd's infectious attitude in the positive sense?

But here is the Nets' dilemma: It takes two to tango. There's no such thing as a one-team trade, and finding a willing partner among the other 29 teams isn't as easy as it sounds. While on the surface any team would want Jason Kidd, the reality is that acquiring him isn't worth the cost for a lot of the league's teams.

As always with the NBA, it comes down to contracts. Kidd makes nearly $20 million this year and more than $21 million next year. Additionally, given his tendency to suffer migraines when his contract demands aren't met, you'd have to think any team acquiring him would need to step up with a costly contract extension too.

The difficulty comes when other teams try to squeeze Kidd under their salary cap. For most teams, doing so requires divesting at least $15 million in contracts. Then throw in luxury tax considerations, and most teams have to come up with contracts that nearly match Kidd's $20 million.

Only a few teams can play in that ballpark, so coming up with a trade partner could prove difficult. The Nets are asking for expiring contracts, draft picks, and young talent, but they may have to settle for two out of three.

In the past 48 hours, four possible trade partners have come up repeatedly: Cleveland, Denver, Dallas, and the Lakers. As we're about to see, each one has hurdles that could be insurmountable.

For Dallas, the biggest obstacle is the simple fact that the Mavs don't really need any help at the point. While Kidd would love to go back to where his career began and have a shot at a championship, Dallas' current duo of Devin Harris and Jason Terry are doing quite well, thanks. Thus, there's no urgency on Dallas's part to replace them, especially with a more expensive player. Basically, this looks like a serious long shot.

Cleveland seems only slightly less likely. While the Cavs can easily come up with enough flotsam to offset Kidd's contract, none of those deals expires until the summer of 2009, so the Nets don't save any money. Additionally, the only keeper they could put into a deal is forward Drew Gooden, an effective player, but one who doesn't move pulses in the league's front offices.

In Denver's case, the lure of a Kidd-Iverson backcourt is strong; they're a perfect pairing because they can cross-match on defense and complement each other offensively. But the Nuggets have a problem coming up with $20 million to offset Kidd's contract.

The only way they could do it would be to include Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, or Nene in the trade. Including Iverson or 'Melo would be idiotic from Denver's end — both are better players than Kidd at this point. And including Martin would be unacceptable from New Jersey's end, as his deal runs two years longer than Kidd's and he's been a lot less productive.

The only way a Denver deal works at all is if the Nuggets are willing to give up most of their frontcourt depth by packaging Nene with the expiring contract of Eduardo Najera, veteran point guard Chucky Atkins, and a firstrounder. Even then, the Nets might balk. While Nene is young and talented, he is a health risk and still has four years left on his deal at nearly $10 million a pop.

Therefore, at the end of the day one realistic option stands out: The L.A. Lakers. There are multiple ways a deal could work. The simplest is for the Nets to get Lamar Odom and a few scraps from the Lakers and call it a day, but L.A. would likely balk at that.

More likely is another deal that still would trump anything the other suitors can come up with: The expiring contracts of Kwame Brown, Chris Mihm, and Trevor Ariza, along with promising young guard Javaris Crittenton (or Jordan Farmar) and a first-round pick.

That would give the Nets three building blocks (Crittenton, Ariza, and the first-rounder), nearly $20 million in cap relief, and the rights to a couple of big men that they might be interested in keeping. It may be hard to believe, given the impact of Kidd's play at the Swamp over the past half-decade, but that's likely to be the best deal the Nets get.

Meanwhile, a Kidd-Kobe Bryant-Odom-Andrew Bynum nucleus would have a great shot at winning the West, especially with quality vets like Derek Fisher and Luke Walton around them. It's the kind of bold stroke that could put them over the top in the crowded West.

So for now, put your money on Kidd ending up in L.A., with Denver as the second choice and Dallas as a dark horse. But in the big picture, don't expect to get a treasure trove in return for Kidd.

Regardless of what he's done for this franchise, his trade value is only based on what he can do for the next one. And it appears nobody is likely to give much more than some expiring deals and a B-level prospect or two for his services.

jhollinger@nysun.com