Much Value Can Be Found in Free Agent Market

While one would think that days before spring training we would be looking at a free agent market filled with nothing but base and unworthy dregs, this year's is nothing of the sort. Famous names such as Mike Piazza, ancient men such as David Wells, useful role players, and even a true superstar are still on the market. The reasons are varied, but all of these players could do real damage this year, and none would cost anything near their potential value. The statistics are projected by a "naive" system called Marcel, which weights an average of the player's last three years, regresses it toward or away from the league average, and includes a slight adjustment for age. It isn't the best system, but it's surprisingly accurate, and quite transparent as it involves no hidden assumptions. Sabermetrician Tom Tango makes these available every year, and fangraphs.com posts them online; they're well worth a look.

BARRY BONDS, LF

Projected stats: .257 AVG/.421 OBA/.488 SLG

The batting line above is conservative; a more sophisticated system used for the Bill James Handbook predicts a .284/.491/.588 line. Even losing 140 points from last year's combined on-base and slugging averages, though, Bonds projects to hit about as well as Manny Ramirez or Vladimir Guerrero will, and there's no reason to think he won't be able to play in about 70% of his team's games. This is the only chance most teams will ever have to sign a free agent this good without paying nine figures.

Bonds is, of course, under federal indictment for perjury in a drug case. One understands how this might dampen his appeal to many teams. Still, there are plenty of people in the major leagues who have been convicted of doing vastly worse things than what Bonds has been accused of, and plenty of exceedingly famous athletes who have played at the highest level while actually on trial for things like rape and being an accessory to murder.

What Bonds does on the field will be worth every cent of a contract worth from $10 to $15 million. For a team such as Toronto, he could make the difference between taking advantage of a chance at the playoffs and falling short. I have no idea how much of a distraction he would prove for whatever lucky team signs him, but there are very few players, fans, or owners who wouldn't, in the end, take a pennant over moral purity.

COREY PATTERSON, CF

Projected stats: .261 AVG/.304 OBA/.400 SLG

As his projection shows, Patterson isn't much of a hitter; National League center fielders hit a combined .273/.336/.426 last year. What the line doesn't show is his base-running (he's swiped 82 bags in 100 tries the last two years) or his terrific defense, which classes him with Endy Chavez and Carlos Beltran. Just 28, Patterson can't hit lefties and doesn't have much of a batting eye, but he's a solid player. He would make one of the very best fourth outfielders in the game, and still has the potential to be something more.

While it's good to be wary of blaming a player's failures on something as nebulous as the environment, Patterson has never really played in a good situation. He was rushed to the majors at 20 and broke in as a regular under a manager who insisted on trying to make him a leadoff man. His game fell apart and he was traded to Baltimore, a dreary place to play and no welcome home for flawed young hitters. With the right coaching and in the right situation, he could probably make a couple of All-Star teams, and if he doesn't improve, he's still a lot better than most people realize. Fly ball Mets pitchers such as Pedro Martinez and John Maine would do well to pay the man's salary personally.

RUSSELL BRANYAN, 3B/1B/RF/LF

Projected stats: .237 AVG/.336 OBA/.452 SLG

Like Patterson, Branyan, who would probably break strikeout records if allowed to play 162 games, is to some degree a victim of lingering prejudice against the whiff. Branyan has been an average major league hitter for years, routinely offsetting Mendozaesque batting averages by posting slugging averages near or above .500, and he's likely to do as much again this year.

Getting a chance has never been Branyan's problem; he's played for four teams in two years, five in three, and played for two different playoff teams last year. Rather, he's never been able to hold a job, which is unsurprising given that he's hit .196 and .228 in the last two years. Teams are constantly tantalized by his defensive versatility and power off the bench, and constantly frustrated when he does exactly what he always does: hit well with a bad batting average. What he needs is a contender that values the advantage of being able to slot in an average left-handed bat at any of four positions and doesn't mind how the player looks doing it. Who that will be, as ever with Branyan, is a mystery.

BARTOLO COLON, SP

Projected stats: 5.05 ERA, 114 IP, 82/33 K/BB

Two years ago, Colon won a Cy Young Award and blew out his shoulder in the same year, which must prove some adage or other, and since then he's been a wreck, posting ugly numbers in two injury-shortened seasons. Faced with apparently rather desultory offers from a few teams, including the Chicago White Sox, where he once pitched, Colon has held off on signing, and is now reportedly drawing the interest of teams such as Pittsburgh and Kansas City.

Teams with higher aspirations might want to look into Colon as well. ESPN Deportes reported that in his most recent start in the Caribbean Series, in which he retired nine of 10 batters, he was clocked at 88–91 mph with his fastball, and was seen tinkering with a split-finger as well. That's bad velocity, down about five mph from the 95 he routinely hit last year according to pitch-tracking information collected by blogger Josh Kalk, but enough that Colon should be able to get by so long as his command isn't totally shot. He's nothing to count on, and will likely end up with a team hoping his arm holds together well enough to be worth some prospects at the deadline, but Colon, like a lesser Bonds, has enough upside that he just might make the difference in some pennant race this year. That should certainly be worth a real offer.

tmarchman@nysun.com