Shocking Defeat All but Ends Federer Era at No. 1

Roger Federer's days at the top of men's tennis are numbered.

The world no. 1, playing his first match since losing the Wimbledon final to Rafael Nadal, suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of Gilles Simon in the second round of the Rogers Cup in Toronto, 2-6, 7-5, 6-4. Early on, Federer had no trouble with the 23-year-old Frenchman, ranked no. 22 in the world, and he had leads of 3-1 and 4-3 in the third set. At 3-3 in the final set, Federer played his best game of the match and broke Simon's serve. But Simon, still confident after his title victory in Indianapolis on Sunday, rattled off the final three games of the match as an increasingly agitated Federer littered the court with uncharacteristic errors.

The loss all but ensures that Nadal, who yesterday won his second-round match against Jesse Levine, 6-4, 6-2, will take over the no. 1 ranking this year, perhaps before the U.S. Open begins. Federer reached the final of this tournament last year, so he'll lose 315 ranking points as Nadal continues to play and continues to close the gap. Nadal reached the semifinals of this event last year and lost in the second round of Cincinnati. Unless he plays exceedingly poorly or suffers an injury, Nadal can't fail to pass Federer. At the moment, all the elements point in his favor.

Last year, Federer lost one match all summer and won the U.S. Open title. He now must wait until next week's tournament in Cincinnati to regain his footing. From there, he'll travel to Beijing in search of his first Olympic medal and then back to America for the U.S. Open, which begins August 25.

He won't have to wait long for the questions to arrive. Did the loss in the Wimbledon final wreck his confidence? Does he have the same desire he once did? From here on out, the pressure to perform up to his old standard — a standard few have ever met on their best days — will be immense. The next six weeks may well be the most trying of his career.

Federer has held the no. 1 ranking since February 2004: 234 consecutive weeks, an all-time record. Nadal has been ranked no. 2 for more consecutive weeks (157) than any player in history. We now know for sure that both of those streaks are about to end. It's only a matter of time before the 22-year-old from Spain takes his rightful place at the top.

Tom Perrotta can be reached at tperrotta@tennismagazine.com.