Spurs Actually Look Mortal This Season
On the surface, almost everything looks in good order for the San Antonio Spurs.
They were 32–16 going into last night's action; they rank in the top seven in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (points per 100 possessions). Their three top players, power forward/pivotman Tim Duncan, swingman Manu Ginobili, and point guard Tony Parker are among the top players in the league; Bruce Bowen remains a top defensive specialist, and guard Brent Barry is having an excellent season.
A dominant team for most of the decade, this is usually when the Spurs become positively unbeatable. A this point last season they were 28–9 after February 1, three seasons ago they went 25–7 after that juncture (I'm discounting the '04–'05 stretch run due to Tim Duncan's injury that sidelined him for three weeks and reduced San Antonio to playing only .667 ball). Yet instead of pondering their route to the Finals, the folks on the Riverwalk may be a tad concerned this season.
The Spurs were 5–5 in their 10 games before last night's tilt in Washington. Admittedly the team is going through a tough part of their schedule; the losses came at Chicago, Phoenix, Utah, and at home to Houston and the Lakers, but let's keep things in perspective. We're not talking about the Pistons or the Cavaliers or the Nuggets or some other merely good team for whom .500 ball is considered good during a tough few weeks. This is the time of year when San Antonio runs through this pack playing .800 ball, and they remind everyone that the road to the title still goes through the AT&T Center.
The Spurs' recent slide comes at a particularly bad time. The dynamic has changed in the conference. For years, the Spurs reigned in their division while the Dallas Mavericks gave chase. At some point in the overtime of Game 7 of their semifinal series last season, the Mavs overtook the Spurs, and all indications are that they aren't looking back. As of yesterday afternoon, Dallas held a seven-game lead over San Antonio, which means that stretch of playing .800 ball isn't a nice way to warm up for the postseason — it's essential for postseason position. The Mavs and the Suns are well ahead of the Spurs while the Lakers and the Rockets are nipping at their heels.
The issue I see for the Spurs might be called a New Jersey Nets problem. San Antonio has three all-star caliber players, two other solid players in its rotation, and not much else. Michael Finley? He's showing why Dallas made him its amnesty rule (Jerome Williams rule) cut two summers ago. The 34-year-old guard is shooting 37.7% from the field and only 31% from behind the arc. Last season, Beno Udrih looked like another gem found in the European leagues by Spurs scouting staff; this season he looks like a dud, shooting 35.4% from the field and 25.3% on three-pointers. Thirtysix-year-old Robert Horry, aka Big Shot Bob, has tumbled to 34.8% from the field and 33% from downtown; with numbers like that, coach Greg Popovich will think twice before putting him on the floor in crunchtime. Jacques Vaughn has played superb defense, but he too is an offensive liability, shooting 29.3% from the field. Two guys who have shot reasonably well, forwards Eric Williams and Matt Bonner, are so weak defensively that they haven't seen a combined 400 minutes of burn.
The pivot is a mess. Fabricio Oberto starts and usually makes a play or two in the first few minutes of the game, but after a couple turnovers (he averages a turnover every six touches, which is not good unless you're a pastry chef), he finds his way to the bench. Despite averaging five points and five rebounds in just under 20 minutes a game, he struggles to play anything resembling starter's minutes. Francisco Elson is even more careless with the ball, so his minutes are also limited. Jackie Butler, whom the Spurs "stole" from the Knicks in the off-season, is so far at the end of the bench that he's closer to the Alamo than he is to meaningful minutes.
With this kind of production from their supporting players, the Spurs are more dependent than ever on Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and Barry. This is why Ginobili comes off the bench; there needs to be someone who can find the hoop when Duncan and Parker are sitting.
The Spurs' point differential, plus 7.1, is more consistent with a higher winning percentage. This suggests that the team will go on their trademark run, but I'm not so sure. I think the league is getting hip to the Spurs' weakness. Both Chicago and Phoenix played defenses that swarmed to the Spurs stars but dared anyone else to shoot. It paid off nicely for both teams. And it doesn't take a genius to know that you'd rather have Udrih shooting than Ginobili or Duncan. The rest of the league may catch on.
This weakness will have to be addressed by the trade deadline or the Spurs run the risk of having a fight to get out of the first round. A worst case scenario would have the team falling behind Houston in the division and Utah in the conference. This would result in having to play from the no. 5 hole against the Rockets in the first round and potentially the earliest Spurs exit in seven years. It's too soon to consider that situation probable, but it's indicative of how quickly things can change even for elite teams.
