Top Defense Encounters Top Offense

It is the ultimate meeting of opposites: the best defense in the league, Baltimore, against the best offense in the league, Indianapolis. But not every matchup between these teams is so equal. The Baltimore offense is much improved over the second half of the year, and one strong game against Kansas City doesn't mean the Colts' defensive problems are gone.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL Manning picked the Ravens apart when these teams played in the first week of the 2005 season, but the 2006 Ravens are far superior to last year's model. DVOA says Baltimore was the best defense in the league in nearly every area. They were first against the pass and second against the run. They ranked among the top three defenses on first, second, and third downs.

The Colts' offensive statistics were limited because opponents slowed down the pace against their defense, but DVOA rates them as the second-best offense of the decade. They ranked first in passing and sixth in rushing. They were second on first down, second on second down, and first on third down by an absurd margin.

The Colts converted 56% of third-down opportunities. Only one other team converted more than 45%.

Each team has one weakness that can be exploited by the other. For Baltimore, that's cornerback Samari Rolle. While Chris McAlister has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league this year, Rolle has been one of the worst. No quarterback does a better job than Peyton Manning when it comes to identifying a weakness in coverage and picking on it again and again.

For the Colts offense, the weakness is Manning's historical trouble against the 3–4 defensive. Manning's ability to change plays at the line depends on recognizing the pass rushers. That's harder to do against a 3–4 defense, and hardest of all against the Baltimore defense, which constantly shifts players around. Linebacker Adalius Thomas might be a safety on one play, a defensive end on the next. Last year's playoff loss to Pittsburgh demonstrated the way the Indianapolis offensive line can be manhandled by fast pass-rushing outside linebackers — like Baltimore's Bart Scott — if Manning doesn't set up the protection perfectly.

WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL After six games, the 2006 Ravens looked no different from recent seasons: a great defense with an inept offense. But during the bye week, head coach Brian Billick fired offensive coordinator Jim Fassel and took over the play calling duties — and everything changed.

The Ravens ranked 26th in offensive DVOA after six games Since their bye week, they rank eighth. Quarterback Steve McNair averaged 4.7 net yards a pass in the first six games of the year, and 6.9 net yards a pass since the bye week. McNair has good receivers and an offensive line that allowed only 17 sacks all season.

Ironically, the one thing that hasn't improved much in Baltimore is the thing the Colts have such trouble with: the running game. The Colts allowed 5.3 yards a carry in the regular season, the worst figure in a decade. But Jamal Lewis averaged a subpar 3.6 yards a carry this season. When McNair and the passing game got going, Lewis's average stayed exactly the same.

The Ravens run 67% of their carries up the middle or behind the guards, which makes their running game predictable. Last week, the Colts stuffed the line with defenders, knowing the Chiefs would want to run up the middle on them. It will be interesting to see whether the Ravens can change their running philosophy and give the Colts something they won't expect, like counters and draws, plays the Colts couldn't stop during the regular season.

Of course, selling out to stop the run left the Colts susceptible to the pass. Trent Green couldn't take advantage of it, but McNair will.

OUTLOOK The Colts offense and Ravens defense will probably duel to a stalemate, making the other matchup the one that decides the game. Most people don't understand how good the Baltimore passing game has been over the second half of the season. The Colts may stop Jamal Lewis like they stopped Larry Johnson, but unless Steve McNair chokes, the Ravens should move on.