Which Early Surprises Are for Real?

Going into last night's games, the Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland A's were tied for the best record in the American League. Each had a record of 16–10, putting them on pace for a round 100 wins. Last year, the Tampa Bay Rays, who had the worst record in baseball, went 16–10 in their best 26-game stretch.

Precisely because it's difficult, it's always a good idea to try to keep some reasonable perspective when it's only a month into the baseball season. You can phrase it any way you like; saying that it's early yet, or that sample sizes are too small to draw meaningful conclusions, would work fine. The end point is always the same, though — four weeks of baseball don't mean a thing.

The standings themselves make for a pretty vivid illustration of how little a month counts for. A year ago today, the Yankees were in last place, and so were the Colorado Rockies. The Chicago Cubs were a half game out of the basement, and the Philadelphia Phillies were two games below .500. All four teams made the playoffs. Meanwhile the Mets, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Milwaukee Brewers were in first place in their divisions, and the Atlanta Braves were in the lead for the National League wild-card spot. All four teams ended up golfing in October.

All of this is awfully convenient for baseball writers. As April draws to a close, we can wave away any inconvenient preseason predictions we made by just saying it's still early. This is often true. The Florida Marlins, for instance, are in first place, but I'll stick by my prediction of 91 losses. The team has been winning despite that they're scoring fewer runs than they're allowing, that their fairly unimpressive relievers have notched a 2.81 ERA, and that left fielder Josh Willingham is hitting .341 AVG/.406 OBA/.637 SLG. None of that is going to continue. This isn't a surprise team; it's a lousy one having a decent month. Similarly, the Detroit Tigers, whom I picked to finish in first place, are a very good team that freakishly lost their first seven games. They're still a good bet to win the pennant; Gary Sheffield won't end up hitting .159, nor will ace Justin Verlander end the year with a 6.50 ERA.

Other cases, though, are dicier. Previewing the season, I described the St. Louis Cardinals as consisting "nearly entirely of bench players and relievers pressed into starting roles and the remnants of several injury-riddled former stars," and forecast 95 losses. This may be end up looking prescient, but they did go into last night's game 16–10, just a half game behind Chicago. It would be easy to say this team is a complete fraud — on paper, they're awful, and their offense has been propped up by such presumably unsustainable performances as that of career fourth outfielder Ryan Ludwick, who's hit .323/.408/.677 — but it might not be too accurate. The reason the Cardinals are still in the running is their pitching and defense, which has limited the opposition to 3.69 runs a game, best in the league. This doesn't seem to make much sense — their rotation, which includes former Mets closer Braden Looper and Kyle Lohse, who didn't even sign until March, is 13–4 with a 3.35 ERA. But then one considers that manager Tony LaRussa, a future Hall of Famer, and his longtime sidekick, pitching coach Dave Duncan, have been pulling strong pitching performances out of various scrubs, washouts, and basket cases for nearly three decades, and one allows that LaRussa just may be able to put together another good season with nothing but smoke, mirrors, and Albert Pujols. It's the sort of case where four weeks may mean something after all.

Our biggest surprise team, though, has been the Arizona Diamondbacks. Following the more or less universal consensus, I figured the National League West would be a three- or even four-way dogfight, and while I had Arizona coming out on top, it was a pretty hedged pick. (I called Los Angeles "the most talented team in the division," for example.) Arizona has of course been romping, entering their late game last night with an 18–7 record and looking like a decent bet to open a double-digit lead within the next few weeks. It's tempting to write their month off as something like the inverse of Detroit's, and call them a very good team having a very good month, but their case may actually be more like that of St. Louis, one where the early returns may be telling.

As was first extensively documented by Bill James decades ago, and as has been exhaustively confirmed since, baseball players, as a whole, peak at 27. That doesn't mean that any given player will peak at that age, but most players peak between the ages of 26 and 28. The average Arizona hitter this year is — you guessed it — 26.6 years old. Last year, Arizona scored 4.4 runs a game; this year, 5.9. They won't keep all of that gain, but on the backs of quantum leaps from such former top prospects as Conor Jackson, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew, they could well keep half of it. This would be enough to make them the best team in the league, and I'd bet it will happen. I should have seen it coming.

tmarchman@nysun.com