With Everything in Place, It's Duke for the Taking
In choosing their no. 1 seeds last night, the NCAA women's selection committee had it easy. Duke, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Connecticut had all separated themselves from the pack of other elite teams and were almost unanimously forecast as top seeds in their regions.
Indeed, Duke (30–1), the no. 1 team in the country, was named the top seed overall in the tournament. The Blue Devils will play close to home in a regional set for Greensboro, N.C. The other three top teams were seeded as expected. UConn (29–3) will come out of Fresno Regional. UNC (30–3) will be the team to beat in the Dallas Regional while Tennesseee (29–3) is the top seed in the Dayton Regional. The Final Four will take place April 1 and 3 in Cleveland.
Then the fun began; the second and third seeds were where the drama occurred. In Greensboro, Vanderbilt (27–5), the winner of the Southeastern Conference tournament, took the no. 2 seed, and Arizona State (28–4) took the no. 3. The wild card in the regional is no. 7 seed Bowling Green (29–3), which threw a scare into Duke in the regular season. Fans of Rutgers (22–8) will cheer their team's no. 4 seed but may be dismayed to play no. 5 Michigan State (23–8) at East Lansing, Mich.
In the Fresno bracket, the committee threw its first curve ball. Mostobservers expected defending champ Maryland (27–5) to be the no. 2 seed here, but the committee awarded that honor to the Stanford Cardinal (28–4). The plot in the regional also thickens with the inclusion of LSU (26–7) as the team is recovering from the sudden resignation of coach Pokey Chatman as allegations of sexual impropriety surfaced last week. North Carolina State (23–9), one of the hottest teams in the tournament as they've won 10 of 12 including victories over Duke and UNC, owns the no. 4 seed while 2005 champion Baylor checks in at no. 5. UConn has an easier road than many expected, but far from a cake walk to Cleveland.
UNC is the top seed in the Dallas region, and it is joined by Big Ten power no. 2 seed Purdue (28–5) and no. 3 Georgia (25–6). The real wild card is Texas A&M (24–6), which emerged as a powerhouse in the Big 12.
The Dayton Region is the group of death with four teams that could have been a no. 1 seed at some point in the season vying for a ticket to the Final Four. Tennessee is the top seed, defending champion Maryland is no. 2, Big 12 champion Oklahoma (26–4) is the no. 3, Ohio State (28–3) is the no. 4 seed, and top mid-major Middle Tennessee (29–3) is the no. 5. Tennessee figures to emerge from the crowded field but not without a fight.
As usual, the selection committee favored BCS conferences, only the Big 10 received just three bids. Most major conferences received more. This bias froze out bubble schools in mid-major conferences like Hofstra (24–7), the closest thing to a local powerhouse. The Pride beat Michigan State in East Lansing but struggled against Colonial Athletic Association foes Old Dominion, James Madison, and Delaware, and failed to get a bid. Similarly, Long Island University/Brooklyn (22–8) failed to win its Northeastern Conference tournament and will watch from home.
So who will win? Give UConn, Tennessee, UNC or any other perennial power Duke's résumé of victories over ranked teams, 30–1 record, and exemplary mix of formidable talent, and it would be easy to write this tournament off as a coronation, but the Blue Devils have typically struggled this time of year. In last season's championship game, they blew a 12-point lead and lost in overtime. However, Duke has played this season like it's a 37-game mission of vengeance. I think it will be the last team standing April 3 in Cleveland.
